Lithium Ore:
The lithium ore market pulled back slightly this week, with ore prices drifting lower alongside lithium carbonate prices, and the center of market transactions edged down. However, based on market communication, the price pullback did not significantly weaken miners' willingness to hold prices firm. Discussions on the pricing logic for spodumene have notably increased recently, with some transactions for Australian ore reflecting that mines are attempting to adjust processing fee assumptions to capture more profits in the industry chain. This indicates that the current ore price game is no longer solely dictated by lithium carbonate prices; the distribution of industry chain profits is becoming a key variable influencing spodumene pricing.
Supply side, production at mainstream Australian mines has been running steadily, the pace of new supply release has basically been in line with expectations, and African projects remain in a gradual ramp-up phase, with limited incremental growth in the short term. Demand side, downstream procurement remained primarily need-based. With limited improvement in smelter margins, their acceptance of high-priced resources stayed cautious, and a wait-and-see sentiment in the market has intensified. Overall, although ore prices pulled back slightly this week, the supply-demand pattern has not changed significantly. The market's focus is gradually shifting from price fluctuations to the pricing mechanism and the rebalancing of industry chain profits. In the short term, lithium ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating in response to lithium carbonate prices, while the profit game between mines and smelters is likely to become a key point to watch in the subsequent market.
Lithium Carbonate:
Spot lithium carbonate prices edged down this week. The futures market fell first and then rose. The price range for the most-traded contract, the 2609 contract, consolidated from 135,600-140,800 yuan/mt at the start of the week to 138,300-144,300 yuan/mt. The contract hit a low of 135,600 yuan/mt mid-week before rebounding to a high of 144,300 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased continuously, with both bearish position covering and some bullish liquidation occurring. The market saw a continuation of the pattern of "downstream purchasing as needed while upstream spot orders were tight," with overall transactions being relatively stable. On the upstream side, there were signs that some lithium chemical plants' willingness to hold prices firm was easing. However, because some plants were still undergoing maintenance and primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contracts, their capacity for spot order shipments was limited, and actual spot shipments remained relatively low. Downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed at lower prices. With long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials being delivered at the beginning of the month, they were cautious about spot procurement. Some downstream buyers saw increased demand for spot orders due to reduced volumes from upstream long-term contracts caused by maintenance, but no sign of large-scale stockpiling emerged. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable. Production on the supply side was generally stable, as the impact from maintenance was offset by incremental output from salt lakes. China's lithium carbonate production was basically stable overall this week. Among the sources, output from the salt lake segment still had room for further increase due to seasonal factors, while maintenance at spodumene and lepidolite facilities continued, still leading to a slight reduction in output this week. From the perspective of inventory changes: Some upstream lithium chemical plants, affected by maintenance, mainly focused on long-term contract supply, with willingness to sell spot orders remaining weak, leading to in-factory inventory accumulation upstream; downstream material plants continued their strategy of purchasing as needed on dips, with inventories basically stable; traders, impacted by the dual effect of tight upstream spot supply and sustained just-in-time procurement downstream, saw a slight destocking of inventory. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices may continue to consolidate on a subdued note. Supply side, ongoing maintenance at lithium chemical plants and tight spot supply provide support for prices; seasonal output growth from salt lake sources supplements supply to some extent, but cannot fully offset the decline caused by maintenance. Demand side, downstream purchasers continue to buy on dips as needed, but large-scale stockpiling has yet to begin, and willingness to accept high prices is limited. Currently, tight spot circulation and a strengthening spot-futures price spread may form support for prices. Going forward, key areas to monitor remain the progress of maintenance recovery at lithium chemical plants, the sustainability of seasonal output increases from salt lakes, changes in the pace of downstream restocking, and the pace of warrant destocking.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide prices showed a decline-stabilize-rise pattern, trading in a range of 128,000-129,750 yuan/mt, with the price center edging upward later in the week.Supply side, the willingness to hold prices firm persisted throughout the week, with most lithium chemical plants choosing to hold back from selling. The few that offered quotes held the line above 135,000-136,000 yuan/mt, and even when prices declined early in the week, there was no panic selling. Demand side remained mediocre, as downstream long-term contract cargo pick-up basically covered production needs, and coupled with prior restocking, enthusiasm for spot purchases was low, with inquiries mainly for price comparison and limited actual orders. In the trade segment, the 09 contract maintained a discount of 13,000-17,000 yuan/mt, but concessions failed to unlock large-volume deals. Notably, the warmer macro tone mid-to-late week lent some support to market sentiment, but the transmission of optimistic expectations to spot transactions was sluggish, with a "heated sentiment, cold transactions" gap persisting throughout the week. Currently, market supply is holding prices firm to provide a floor, with limited downside room; demand is underpinned by long-term contracts, leaving insufficient incentive for spot purchases and a lack of upward momentum. A sustained price rebound next week is expected to still await concrete signals of end-use demand recovery.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, the decline in spot refined cobalt prices widened, and overall market sentiment weakened.Supply side, mainstream smelters lowered their ex-factory quotes to 340,000 yuan/mt, while most other small and medium-sized smelters basically suspended external quotations due to loss pressure. Demand side, downstream enterprises remained in the summer break cycle, with limited purchase willingness, only maintaining small-scale just-in-time restocking. This week's price decline was mainly sentiment-driven, as overseas spot and futures quotation platforms synchronously lowered their quotes, causing previously relatively firm prices outside China to loosen, significantly undermining sentiment in the Chinese market. Combined with the continued weakening of China's cobalt salt and intermediate product prices, bearish sentiment gradually heated up, and some suppliers who had been on the sidelines began to sell off, further intensifying downward pressure on prices. Overall, the current period is the traditional consumption off-season for cobalt. Demand side, support remains limited, coupled with weakening prices outside China and a shift to bearish market sentiment. In the short term, prices may remain in the doldrums.
Intermediate Products:
This week, the cobalt intermediate products market maintained a sluggish pattern, with actual trading volumes remaining limited. Recently, several miners initiated multiple tenders for intermediate products, but due to significant price expectation divergences between upstream and downstream, no actual transactions were concluded. The latest indicative bid price was around $21-21.5/lb. Affected by the persistently weak prices of cobalt salts and refined cobalt, the psychological price levels of downstream smelters and traders for raw materials further fell to around $18-19/lb, with some enterprises only able to accept $17/lb. The price gap with miner offers continued to widen, making it difficult to finalize actual transactions. In the short term, although miners show a willingness to hold prices firm, downstream demand support is insufficient. The tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continues, and a price recovery still needs to await a recovery in actual downstream demand.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
This week, the cobalt sulphate market maintained a sluggish pattern, with the stalemate between upstream and downstream remaining unchanged. Supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP held their offers above 80,000 yuan/mt, supported by costs. Mainstream recyclers maintained offers at approximately a 5% discount to SMM’s low-end prices, while a few enterprises with a stronger willingness to sell lowered their offers to 70,000-73,000 yuan/mt. There were even reports of a small number of extremely low prices below 70,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, performance remained weak, with downstream purchase intention prices continuing to be slashed, and some extreme inquiries being pushed below 70,000 yuan/mt. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices still face some downward pressure. Stabilization and recovery of the market still need to wait for the release of concentrated downstream restocking demand.
This week, the cobalt chloride market maintained a sluggish atmosphere, with actual transactions remaining sluggish. Supply side, in terms of real-time costs, recycling and the refined cobalt back-financing route have already fallen significantly below market offer and transaction prices. However, upstream smelters are burdened by heavy inventories accumulated at previously high costs. Amidst persistently weakening prices, it is difficult for them to dilute costs through lower-priced purchases, so overall offers remained relatively firm due to inventory cost support. Nevertheless, some enterprises have gradually and slightly lowered their offer prices to promote sales in order to accelerate turnover and reduce loss pressure. However, downstream purchasing strength was insufficient, and the price cuts had a limited boosting effect on transactions. Demand side, Co3O4 producers had high inventories and, coupled with no improvement in end-use consumption, their purchase willingness was low. In the short term, cobalt chloride prices still face some downward pressure.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
This week, the Co3O4 market saw sluggish trading sentiment, with actual trading volumes remaining sparse. Supply side, producers generally maintained low operating rates amid high inventories, thin margins, and lingering risks of inventory buildup. Demand side, although cathode material plants made some inquiries, actual procurement was limited. Current raw material inventories still cover production needs, with no urgent restocking demand. On balance, Co3O4 prices may continue to weaken in the short term.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price edged down slightly.
From the demand side, the month-end procurement period has passed, and some downstream enterprises mainly pick up goods under long-term contracts, with relatively stable raw material inventories. Restocking sentiment for spot orders was weak, and acceptance of nickel salt prices remained low. From the supply side, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices remained elevated, and some enterprises had a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Looking ahead, the overall market is expected to be still dominated by destocking this month. Nickel sulphate prices will mainly focus on the cost support strength from nickel prices.
On the inventory side, this week the upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 8.1 days, the downstream precursor plant inventory index rebounded from 8.4 days to 11.5 days, and the integrated enterprise inventory index held at 7.6 days. In terms of buying/selling strength, the upstream nickel salt smelter Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8 this week, the downstream precursor plant Purchasing Sentiment Factor slipped from 2.6 to 2.5, and the integrated enterprise sentiment factor held at 2.5. (Historical data can be accessed from the database)
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
This week, ternary cathode precursor prices declined. Nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices fell sharply, and manganese sulphate prices dropped modestly during the week.
On the discount side, for August and Q3 orders, due to higher sulphate raw material costs earlier, some producers have the intention to raise discounts. On long-term contracts, coefficients for most producers remained unchanged, as many long-term agreements were settled earlier this year; downstream acceptance of coefficient increases for quarterly contracts was also weak. Except for some top-tier producers with certain bargaining power, overall terms held stable compared with Q2. On spot orders, given relatively weak recent nickel and cobalt salt prices, some downstream enterprises sought raw material toll processing. August order coefficients are expected to hold stable overall compared with July.
On the production side, top-tier producers' export orders continued to perform well this month, with production schedules at relatively high levels. Domestic top-tier producers also saw a significant recovery in operating rates, while some small and medium-sized producers still had relatively low production schedules due to the off-season.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have not shown a significant rebound yet. Future new order prices will depend on the pace of downstream restocking in Q3.
Ternary Cathode Material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices were basically flat, extending the pattern of consolidating at lows in stages. Raw material side, nickel sulphate prices were relatively weak, while cobalt sulphate prices continued to decline, with a more pronounced drop. Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide kept consolidating at lows. In terms of transaction sentiment, some cathode plants and battery cell manufacturers only conducted small-scale restocking to meet rigid demand, with procurement volumes relatively limited, and the market generally still expected price cuts in the future. On the discount side, adjustments on nickel, cobalt, and lithium discounts remained unchanged recently. As the lithium battery consumption tax is about to be reinstated, battery cell manufacturers may pass on part of the cost pressure upstream, leaving expectations for discount increases weak. Demand side, August orders were stable with some growth, and EV market demand in China and overseas stayed high; however, the consumer market showed no clear signs of recovery yet.
LFP:
This week, LFP prices edged down by about 100 yuan/mt. Against a weekly decline of around 1,500 yuan/mt for lithium carbonate, LFP cathode prices demonstrated notable resilience, mainly because the increase in processing fees effectively offset the drop. Currently, high-quality production lines across the industry are all operating at full capacity, with rigid capacity constraints becoming prominent. Battery cell manufacturers proactively accepted processing fee increases to secure supply, and the upward price trend is gradually becoming clear, but the full implementation of the linkage mechanism still requires further confirmation through industry chain negotiations. Supply side, the August LFP cathode production schedule was around 565,000 mt, up 5% MoM, with growth mainly driven by demand from commercial vehicles and energy storage. However, effective capacity is approaching its limit, and except for low and mid-end lines, the entire industry was basically running at full capacity. Top-tier players’ orders significantly exceed their delivery capability, supply of high-quality products such as high-compacted materials remains tight, and finished product inventories were being consumed passively. In the short term, the support from processing fee increases for LFP prices at the bottom is strengthening. Going forward, close attention should be paid to downstream battery cell manufacturers’ acceptance of the price hikes and the pace of demand realization during the September-October peak season. SMM will continue to track market changes.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, SMM iron phosphate prices remained stable, with upstream and downstream enterprises basically concluding negotiations, leaving prices with no choice but to rise further. Raw material side, phosphoric acid prices edged down this week, with transaction prices around 8,500-9,500 yuan/mt. Ferrous sulphate market price stayed at about 800 yuan/mt, and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) price was steady at around 7,500 yuan/mt. Overall prices were significantly lower than a few months ago. This month, end-use demand continued to increase, and downstream enterprises were at a slight disadvantage in negotiations due to tight supply. The decline in raw material prices still could not stop upstream producers’ willingness to continue raising prices. Supply side, iron phosphate producers were active in production this month, but limited by tight production lines and capacity, overall growth in August was limited. Downstream demand: LFP demand continued to improve, and overall is expected to increase by 5% MoM.
LCO:
The LCO market remained relatively stable this week. On the supply side, downstream demand recovery has been slow, with enterprises' production and shipments remaining at low levels since the beginning of the year. Price reduction strategies adopted to compete for market share have significantly narrowed profit margins, but actual shipments have not improved correspondingly. On the demand side, although battery cell manufacturers' production schedules saw slight increases, the growth was not effectively transmitted to LCO, and the increasing proportion of downstream switching to ternary material was also an important influencing factor. Overall, LCO prices still face potential downside in the near term.
Anode:
This week, prices of artificial graphite anode material in China showed an upward trend. The supply-demand relationship maintained the previous tight effective spot supply pattern. On the cost side, raw material prices continued to climb, and coupled with unresolved cost pressures from earlier periods, current cost support remains strong, driving anode producers' strong willingness to raise prices. For natural graphite, end-use demand was weak, with downstream procurement generally pushing for lower prices, leading to a sluggish market transaction atmosphere. However, since prices had long hovered near the cost line, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers entered a stalemate, limiting further downside room.
Looking ahead, artificial graphite is expected to benefit from improving demand, tight supply, and gradual cost passthrough, with the price center likely to rise steadily. In contrast, natural graphite, lacking demand-side momentum, will likely continue to consolidate on a weak note in the short term, awaiting new catalysts for a breakthrough.
Separator:
The separator market remained generally stable this week. In terms of specific quotations, prices of mid- to high-end wet-process separator products remained firm: 5μm (5μ+2μ) was quoted at 1.57-1.87 yuan/m², 7μm (7μ+2μ) mainstream quotations ranged 1.14-1.337 yuan/m², and 9μm (9μ+3μ) was quoted at 1.135-1.29 yuan/m². Based on actual July production data, separator production grew about 4% MoM, while end-user production schedules increased 9.95% MoM during the same period, with production growth persistently trailing downstream demand growth, widening the supply-demand gap. Entering August, end-user production schedules are expected to rise another 8% MoM, while separator output growth is projected to narrow to about 3%, likely further widening the supply-demand divergence. Currently, top-tier separator enterprises maintained full-capacity operations, with second- and third-tier producers also running at high operating rates, keeping the industry in tight balance. In terms of prices, base film increases were limited by competitive bidding from second- and third-tier producers, while coated products remained firm, supported by energy storage and high-end NEV demand. In the short term, with the supply-demand gap persisting and a new round of order negotiations set to begin in September, separator producers' willingness to raise prices has gradually strengthened. If downstream production schedules remain high and supply growth is limited, a new round of slight upward potential is expected in September. The market currently remains mainly stable, with attention on the actual extent of September's order negotiation outcomes.
Electrolyte
Electrolyte prices rose somewhat this week. On the cost side, LiPF6 prices remained stable this week. On one hand, limited fluctuations in upstream lithium carbonate futures kept costs relatively steady; on the other hand, the market's concentrated order-signing phase ended, reducing trading activity and stabilizing LiPF6 prices in the short term. In the additive sector, VC orders from earlier periods were largely fulfilled, with the pace of price increases temporarily slowing. However, downstream demand continued to recover steadily, and with some producers undergoing maintenance, the supply-demand tightness remained unchanged, leaving room for further VC price hikes. Driven by successive upstream raw material price increases and continued cost pressure passthrough, electrolyte market prices rose in tandem. On the supply-demand side, power battery enterprises initiated pre-stockpiling for the "September-October peak season," and with sustained high demand growth in the energy storage sector, battery cell operating rates and production steadily increased. Electrolyte plants generally implemented sales-based production strategies, with industry operating rates moving up accordingly. Overall, electrolyte prices are closely tied to upstream raw material trends, and future changes will still depend on raw material price fluctuations and the extent of cost passthrough downstream.
Sodium-ion Battery:
On the cathode material side, NFPP ran at full capacity, with mainstream enterprises actively building new capacity and major lithium battery producers seeing significant demand growth. However, few enterprises achieved large-scale shipments in Q3, with the tight supply pattern expected to continue into early Q4. On the hard carbon anode side, capacity utilization approached 100%, highlighting delivery pressures under low inventory. While toll processing offered a short-term emergency solution, quality control and cost issues remained unavoidable, and the tight supply of high-end products was unlikely to ease soon. On the electrolyte side, capacity at top-tier players neared saturation, driving order overflow, but the limited number of market players and insufficient entry by lithium battery enterprises meant supply elasticity remained the core bottleneck. On the cell side, a slight sequential decline in production represented normal industry adjustment, with new production line commissioning and an underdeveloped supply system causing a delay in output ramp-up. Toll processing was common, but concerns over double-counting of production volumes warrant attention.
Recycling:
On the raw material side, lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated this week, while cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall. This week, looking at ternary, LCO, and LFP material types: For LFP hydrometallurgy, taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, prices stood at 6,100-6,700 yuan per % lithium, edging down from last Thursday's transaction prices. Meanwhile, LFP battery black mass was priced at 5,400-5,850 yuan per % lithium, with the price spread versus electrode black mass gradually widening. This was mainly because multiple LFP restoration enterprises were operating actively, primarily purchasing LFP electrodes, which expanded the demand market for waste LFP electrode material. Consequently, some LFP hydrometallurgy enterprises shifted to purchasing LFP battery black mass or bought LFP electrode black mass at additional high prices. On the ternary and LCO side, nickel and cobalt payables for ternary electrode black mass were around 76-79%, with some low-price deals starting to emerge and the lower-end payables declining. Cobalt and lithium payables for pure cobalt and high-cobalt scrap also edged down. Persistent declines in cobalt sulphate prices, combined with sluggish end-use demand, led to weak purchasing activity by upstream hydrometallurgy enterprises.
Downstream and End-user:
Regarding the battery consumption tax, as specific collection and implementation details have not yet been released, most battery cell enterprises have not uniformly raised prices for downstream customers, and only some newly signed orders have reserved room for tax adjustments in pricing and contract terms, with no consistent price increase trend formed in the market. Once the details are clarified, the additional tax burden is expected to be shared among upstream and downstream players through negotiations between cell enterprises, system integrators, and end-user customers, with actual passthrough depending on enterprise order structures, customer bargaining power, and own cost absorption capacity. On August 4, the bidding for the 300MW/1200MWh LFP battery ESS equipment procurement for the Longhua Guojiatun standalone ESS project under Hebei Communications Investment Group opened. A total of 28 enterprises purchased bidding documents, and 12 participated in bidding, with bid prices ranging from 0.510 to 0.544 yuan/Wh and an average bid price of 0.531 yuan/Wh. Three enterprises were shortlisted as winning candidates: Ruiyuan Electric, Trina Storage, and HyperStrong, with their bid prices ranging from 0.525 to 0.538 yuan/Wh.
News:
[Yen Weakness and Strong US Hybrid Car Demand Lead Honda to Raise Full-Year Profit Forecast] Honda Motor Co., after releasing quarterly results, raised its profit outlook, as the weak yen and strong US demand for hybrid vehicles boosted performance. The Japanese automaker now expects operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to reach 650 billion yen, up from the previously expected 500 billion yen. Analysts on average forecast a profit of 676 billion yen for the year. Honda expects full-year sales of 24.15 trillion yen, higher than its earlier estimate and the 23.2 trillion yen predicted by analysts. Honda expects a profit rebound this fiscal year, mainly relying on forex tailwinds and US market demand. Meanwhile, the company is working to restructure its underperforming auto business. Honda recorded a 2.5 trillion yen impairment loss in March, leading to its first annual loss since its founding in 1948. Its previously less competitive model lineup has made it difficult to compete with leading players in the shift to technologically advanced battery EVs. (Jin10 Data)
[Shanghai Cyberspace Administration, Together with Multiple Departments, Guides Industry Associations in Drafting Auto Industry Compliance Convention] To promote stronger self-discipline among automakers and dealers and continuously regulate the online communication order in the auto industry, the Shanghai Cyberspace Administration, together with the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce, the Shanghai Municipal Administration for Market Regulation, and the Shanghai Public Security Bureau's Cyberspace Security Division, guided the Shanghai Automobile Sales Industry Association and the Shanghai Auto Parts Industry Association in formulating the "Shanghai Automobile Industry Marketing Behavior and Online Information Communication Compliance Convention." The convention closely addresses prominent risks in online auto marketing, specifying self-regulatory requirements around price behavior norms, online information communication norms, and sales and service conduct guidelines, advocating that automakers, dealers, and relevant market entities adhere to compliance business bottom lines and jointly maintain a fair competitive market order and a clean and orderly cyberspace. (Jin10 Data APP)
[CAAM: June Auto Product Imports and Exports Totaled $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), in June 2026, the total import and export value of automotive products was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and 35.5% YoY. Among this, imports were $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and 18.7% YoY; exports were $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and 47.2% YoY. In the first half of 2026 (January-June), the cumulative import and export value of national automotive products was $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. Among this, imports were $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; exports were $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP)
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is provided for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Lin Ziya 86-2151666902
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Chen Bolin 021-51666836
Xu Mengqi 021-20707868
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