Weekend Rigid Demand Supports Improved Trading, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Stabilize [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Aug 7, 2026 14:23

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, with delivery approaching, Shanghai spot copper prices continue to rise, and the backwardation spread between nearby and next-month contracts shows signs of further widening. Some suppliers face the need to roll positions, which may drive an increase in low-priced available cargoes, exerting some pressure on spot premiums. Intraday, ahead of the weekend, some downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement, while some enterprises had demand for invoices. Market transactions improved from yesterday, and although suppliers still lowered their offers, the overall price reduction was limited. Supply side, currently available cargoes have not become significantly looser, and the circulation of some brands is limited, providing some support to the downside of premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of position rolling pressure near delivery, widening price spreads between futures contracts, and just-in-time procurement by downstream buyers, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to trade at a discount next week. The discount magnitude will depend on the movement of the spread and the flow of market supply.

SMM, August 7:

The SHFE copper 2608 contract retreated after a rapid rise before stabilizing and rebounding in early trading. Opening at 107,750 yuan/mt, prices continued to rise, touching a high of 108,600 yuan/mt, then pulled back to 108,210 yuan/mt, subsequently stabilizing and edging up to close at 108,400 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between front-month contracts ranged from 90 yuan/mt to 170 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper’s import profit margin against the 2608 contract for the current month stood between a loss of 1,620 yuan/mt and a loss of 1,520 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode was 3.19, up 0.05 MoM, and procurement sentiment was 3.04, up 0.19 MoM. Historical data is available in the database. In the first round of offers, suppliers quoted standard-quality copper at premiums of 40-70 yuan/mt. They then trimmed offers slightly, with Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin and others quoting premiums of 30-40 yuan/mt, while Jingguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, Jintun PC, etc. quoted EXW premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Entering the second session, suppliers further lowered their offers to facilitate transactions. Standard-quality copper from Zhongtiaoshan, Jinchuan ISA, OLYDA, Jinchuan ISA Yongchang, etc. was traded at a premium of 20 yuan/mt; non-registered copper was traded at discounts of 80-60 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, as delivery nears, Shanghai spot copper prices are expected to keep rising, and the backwardation spread between front-month contracts may widen further. Some suppliers face roll-over needs, which could increase the flow of cheaper cargoes, exerting pressure on spot premiums. During the day, some downstream users made just-in-time procurement before the weekend, while some enterprises had invoice-related demand, leading to improved trading compared with yesterday. Although suppliers continued to lower offers, overall cuts were limited. Supply side, available cargoes remain far from ample, with tight circulation of some brands providing support for the lower end of premiums. Overall, against the backdrop of delivery-related roll-over pressure, widening monthly spread, and downstream just-in-time procurement, spot SHFE copper prices against the 2608 contract are expected to trade at a discount next week, with the discount magnitude hinging on the monthly spread trend and cargo flow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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