Copper Prices Hit Recent Highs, Downstream Purchases Weak; Export Window Opens, Potentially Diverting China's Supply [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Friday, August 7, 2026
Futures: LME copper opened at $14,268/mt overnight, edged up to $14,270/mt after opening, then consolidated and pulled back, dipping to a low of $14,055/mt, and finally closing at $14,092.5/mt, down 0.40%; trading volume was 27,800 lots, and open interest increased to 254,000 lots, up 1,610 lots from the previous trading day, driven by an increase in bearish positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,130 yuan/mt overnight, hit a high of 108,250 yuan/mt and a low of 107,310 yuan/mt during the session, and finally closed at 108,160 yuan/mt, up 0.36%; trading volume was 100,100 lots, and open interest fell to 214,300 lots, down 2,426 lots from the previous trading day, driven by a decrease in bearish positions.

[SMM Copper Morning Report] News:
(1) According to a Reuters report cited by , Mariana Minerals announced on Monday that it had raised $310 million to accelerate its critical minerals production in the US. The company stated that this funding would help develop its projects, including the Copper One project in southeastern Utah and the Lithium One project in eastern Texas. This brings the total funds raised by the company to approximately $400 million. Mariana said the investment would help achieve its goal of developing 10 commercial-scale projects over the next 10 years, aiming to expand the US supply of critical minerals.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On Aug 6, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2608 contract were quoted at premiums of 120-240 yuan/mt, with an average of 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2608 contract moved downwards after a higher opening, then shot up and retreated in the morning session. The opening price was 107,980 yuan/mt. After opening, prices rose to 108,150 yuan/mt, then pulled back to 107,600 yuan/mt. After stabilizing, prices rose again, reaching 108,150 yuan/mt during the session. In the second period, prices initially traded mainly between 107,950 yuan/mt and 108,050 yuan/mt, then quickly fell, closing at 107,730 yuan/mt. The month spread for backwardation was between 90 yuan/mt and 170 yuan/mt. Import profit margins for SHFE copper against the 2608 front-month contract ranged from a loss of 1,500 yuan/mt to 1,370 yuan/mt. Sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.14, up 0.04 MoM, while procurement sentiment was 2.85, down 0.03 MoM (historical data can be accessed in the database). Looking ahead to today, SMM recorded social inventory in Shanghai of 76,100 mt, down 900 mt WoW; social inventory in Jiangsu was 20,500 mt, up 400 mt WoW. Overall inventory in east China saw a slight decline, providing some support to spot premiums. Meanwhile, with the copper cathode export window open, SMM understands that some suppliers have begun arranging shipments for export. If actual exports increase subsequently, this could divert some of the available domestic spot supply. However, with SHFE copper prices remaining high, downstream actual consumption was weak. Despite continuous downward adjustments in standard-quality copper quotes during the day, transactions did not improve significantly, and market purchases remained mainly need-based. Overall, with slight inventory declines and export demand providing support, but weak domestic consumption continuing to cap prices, SHFE copper spot premiums against the 2608 contract are expected to hold today, with the overall center likely stabilizing at low levels, while the actual scale of export outflows needs monitoring.

(2) Guangdong: On Aug 6, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. Procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.30, down 0.1 from the previous trading day, while sales sentiment was 2.83, up 0.02 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, with copper prices hitting recent highs, downstream buyers were unwilling to purchase, forcing suppliers to lower prices to sell, resulting in overall sluggish trading.

(3) Imported copper: On Aug 6, the average warrant price fell by $2/mt from the previous trading day to $104/mt (price range: $98-110/mt); the average B/L price fell by $1/mt to $100/mt (range: $95-105/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) fell by $1/mt to $67/mt (range: $62-72/mt), based on shipments arriving from August to early September.

(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 AM on Aug 6, the futures closing price was 107,730 yuan/mt, up 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 80 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. On Aug 6, copper scrap prices rose by 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.75, and the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.06. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,025 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,810 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, suppliers of copper scrap continued to sell as copper prices rose. However, due to varying implementation standards of ‘reverse invoicing’ across regions for untaxed sources, the price increase for untaxed copper scrap was limited. Meanwhile, with the widening price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod, both downstream wire and cable enterprises and traders actively placed orders. Secondary copper rod enterprises, with sufficient new orders, also continuously purchased copper scrap on the market, resulting in highly active trading.

Price: On the macro front, the DRC announced a ban on copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate exports, briefly pushing LME copper higher on supply concerns; however, US initial jobless claims remained below 200,000 for the third consecutive week, and corporate layoffs decreased significantly in July while hiring plans edged up slightly, indicating resilience in the labor market. Meanwhile, according to sources, if inflation data remains strong, Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin may be prepared to raise rates in September, with rising rate hike expectations weighing on copper prices and causing them to pull back. Geopolitically, a proposed navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz by Iran may ban US and Israeli ships, adding uncertainty to the strait's open outlook. On the fundamentals side, supply: recent arrivals of domestic and imported copper cathode edged up slightly, improving market supply. On the demand side, the off-season combined with high copper prices suppressed downstream production and stockpiling demand, keeping spot transactions sluggish. As of Thursday, Aug 6, SMM copper inventory in major regions across China increased by 7,300 mt WoW from the previous Thursday to 119,200 mt, with total inventory down 12,800 mt YoY from 132,000 mt in the same period last year. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. SMM is not responsible for any decisions made by clients.]