PV Module Scheduled Production Slightly Up MoM Underpins Frame Production Starts; Aluminum Prices Expected to Consolidate on a Strong Note in Short Term Amid Macro Fundamental Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts [SMM Analysis]

SMM August 6 –

PV Aluminum Extrusion: Within this week’s surveyed sample, PV frame enterprises primarily focused on executing orders on hand, with the industry’s operating rate remaining stable. Some top-tier players continued to stay high. During the week, the supply-demand pattern of downstream PV modules showed no significant changes. The August production schedule for PV module enterprises is expected to edge up MoM from July, providing a stable demand floor for the operating rates of PV frame enterprises. In the near term, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises is expected to continue stable operations.

Raw Material Prices: During the period (August 3–August 6, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at 23,680 yuan/mt, up 1.4% WoW from the previous period. Overall, divergences persisted in the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise interest rates in July, its overall stance remained hawkish. Fundamentals continued their deficit, with aluminum ingot inventory destocking. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Next week, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade within the range of 23,200–24,200 yuan/mt, while LME aluminum is expected to trade within the range of $3,100–$3,250/mt. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions and new project commissioning plan dynamics in the Middle East.