Futures prices pulled back after encountering resistance, ADC12 spot remained stable with a wait-and-see stance [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

[SMM Express] A tiered export tax system introduced in Zimbabwe in January 2026 is emerging as government's primary enforcement tool for its beneficiation agenda, taxing raw, unprocessed minerals at the highest rate while letting fully processed products move with little or no export tax at all. According to legal analysis published this week, the system also raises the compliance bar for producers seeking to benefit from it: qualifying requires proper surface rights authorization, an environmental impact assessment certificate that explicitly covers both extraction and processing, a clean ZIMRA compliance record, and clearly structured joint-venture agreements that protect ownership of both the mined mineral and any processed product derived from it. Miners operating through informal partnerships or unregistered syndicates are explicitly excluded from claiming processing incentives or capital equipment rebates, regardless of the quality of the ore body they hold. The same tiered logic applies directly to chrome. Zimbabwe's chrome sector already sits inside this beneficiation architecture: a February 2026 ban on exporting unbeneficiated minerals and a requirement tying chrome mining titles above 100 hectares to ferrochrome furnace development have made local smelting, rather than raw ore shipment, the only compliant export route for large-scale chrome producers. Under the tiered tax structure, a chrome producer shipping raw ore now faces the highest applicable tax bracket, while a producer exporting fully smelted ferrochrome faces little or none. For ferrochrome operators structuring joint ventures with international partners, or chrome miners deciding whether to invest in smelting capacity, the practical implication is that legal and corporate readiness has become as commercially decisive as the ore body itself: an exporter without a processing-stage EIA certificate or a clean ZIMRA compliance record risks being taxed as a raw shipper even where meaningful on-site beneficiation has already taken place.

[Silicon Metal Production Cuts Improve Market Sentiment, Futures Trend Narrowly Stronger]: This week, spot silicon metal prices held steady, while futures prices trended stronger. This week, silicon metal futures prices drifted higher. On Thursday, the SI2609 contract closed at 8,425 yuan/mt, up 255 yuan/mt from last Friday. In the spot market, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, flat WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt, also flat WoW. During the week, futures prices stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded. On one hand, production cuts on the silicon metal supply side expanded. Following some capacity reductions at the end of July, new production cut information emerged this week in regions such as Gansu and Ningxia. Silicon metal production in August is expected to drop 9% MoM, and total silicon consumption on the demand side is expected to increase MoM. The fundamentals of reduced supply and increased demand showed significant improvement, and market sentiment warmed, with more bullish views emerging. On the other hand, influenced by downstream PV anti-involution policies, the market trading atmosphere was bullish.

[SMM Express] Samchrome FZE, the Dubai-based exclusive distributor of Samancor Chrome's ferrochrome and chrome ore products, has confirmed 156 US cents per pound as the reference for the European Benchmark Ferrochrome Price for the third quarter of 2026. The figure sets the negotiated quarterly price point that European and international stainless steel producers use as their contractual reference for South African-origin ferrochrome supplied through Samancor's distribution network, distinct from the spot and tender-based pricing that governs China's domestic ferrochrome market. The confirmation offers a useful international counterpoint to the pricing trend SMM has tracked on the Chinese side of the market through mid-2026. China's domestic high-carbon ferrochrome price had climbed from around CNY 8,200 to roughly CNY 8,750-8,800 per 50 base mt between January and late March, before easing back to approximately CNY 8,190-8,290 by the end of June, with further softening and a bearish tender outlook noted into July. Whether the European quarterly benchmark holds steady, rises, or is adjusted downward relative to Q2 2026 will be an important signal for whether South African ferrochrome producers are seeing firmer support in negotiated Western contracts even as Chinese spot pricing cools — a comparison SMM will continue to track as more of the international benchmark data becomes available.