Positive Progress in US-Iran Talks, Oil Price Pullback Boosts Copper Futures [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

According to Reuters, the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has announced an immediate ban on exports of copper and cobalt concentrates as part of its efforts to promote domestic mineral processing and increase the value added from its mineral resources. According to a government order obtained by Reuters, the ban was signed on June 29 by the Minister of Mines, the Minister of Foreign Trade and the Minister of Economy, and explicitly prohibits the export of copper and cobalt concentrates. At the same time, the DRC has introduced a new tax regime for economically significant mining by-products to increase revenue from its mining sector. The new tax regime includes a three-month transition period, while the export ban takes effect immediately. Under "strategic" circumstances, the Minister of Mines may grant export waivers for up to one year. As the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper supplier, the DRC's move is expected to affect major mining companies operating in the country, including CMOC, Glencore, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, Ivanhoe Mines and Eurasian Resources Group.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 06 Aug , 2026

Copper shipments into the United States continued to surge as traders sought to capitalize on the price premium between the COMEX and London Metal Exchange (LME) markets ahead of a potential U.S. decision on refined copper import tariffs. According to IHS Markit shipping data, more than 200,000 tonnes of refined copper arrived at U.S. ports during July, marking the highest monthly inflow in more than a decade. Combined inventories held on COMEX and LME facilities in the United States have now exceeded 740,000 tonnes, while additional material remains in storage at U.S. ports awaiting delivery. The movement of metal into the U.S. has tightened availability in other key trading hubs. Market participants reported significant inventory declines at bonded warehouses in Shanghai, where stocks have fallen sharply since the beginning of the year as cargoes have been redirected to the U.S. to capture favorable arbitrage opportunities. The premium of COMEX copper over LME prices has remained well above historical norms, providing sufficient margin to offset transportation, insurance and warehousing costs. The shift comes as the U.S. administration continues to evaluate potential tariffs on refined copper imports. While the timing and scope of any measures remain uncertain, the prospect of future trade restrictions has already reshaped global trade flows and inventory distribution. The continued migration of copper inventories into the United States is tightening physical availability across international markets and supporting a firmer supply outlook outside North America. Any delay, revision or cancellation of proposed U.S. import tariffs could narrow the COMEX-LME price premium, potentially reversing some of the recent inventory movements and increasing short-term price volatility.