New York copper prices hit a new record high; high copper prices suppress downstream purchasing, premiums under pressure [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Published: Aug 6, 2026 09:02

Save

SMM Morning Brief: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,992/mt, dipped to $13,975.5/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to hit a high of $14,150/mt, before eventually settling at $14,148.5/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume stood at 20,200 lots, and open interest increased to 253,000 lots, up 1,896 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls added positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,350 yuan/mt, with an intraday high of 107,840 yuan/mt and a low of 107,300 yuan/mt, and settled at 107,770 yuan/mt, up 0.40%. Trading volume was 38,600 lots, while open interest fell to 214,000 lots, down 2,688 lots from the previous trading day, as bears reduced positions.

Aug 6, 2026, Thursday
Overnight: LME copper opened at $13,992/mt, dipped to $13,975.5/mt in early trading, then drifted higher to reach an intraday high of $14,150/mt, eventually closing at $14,148.5/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume was 20,200 lots, and open interest increased to 253,000 lots, up 1,896 lots from the previous trading day, marked by increased long positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,350 yuan/mt, hit a high of 107,840 yuan/mt, a low of 107,300 yuan/mt, and closed at 107,770 yuan/mt, up 0.40%. Trading volume was 38,600 lots, and open interest declined to 214,000 lots, down 2,688 lots from the previous trading day, marked by reduced short positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Briefing] News:
(1) On Wednesday, COMEX copper prices hit a record high. The market is betting that the US will impose import tariffs, continuing to attract copper flows into the US while overseas supply tightens. The most-traded COMEX September copper futures briefly touched $6.7045/lb ($14,781/mt), surpassing the previous high of $6.69 set in mid-May. In the afternoon session, the most-traded contract traded at $6.6825, up 0.6% from Tuesday’s settlement, with a year-to-date gain of about 17%.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On Aug 5, SMM #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month SHFE 2608 contract were quoted at 120–240 yuan/mt, with an average of 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE 2608 contract moved lower before rebounding in morning trading. It opened at 107,140 yuan/mt, then slipped to an intraday low of 106,800 yuan/mt, stabilized, and climbed to a high of 107,300 yuan/mt, subsequently trading mainly between 107,200–107,270 yuan/mt, closing at 107,230 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between contracts ranged from 80–180 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract stood at a loss of 1,370–1,430 yuan/mt. Sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.10, up 0.10 from the previous day, while procurement sentiment was 2.88, down 0.03 from the previous day. Historical data can be found in the database. Looking ahead to today, the intraday SHFE copper price center is expected to rise further above 107,000 yuan/mt. High copper prices significantly suppress downstream purchases, with the market still dominated by just-in-time buying. However, suppliers’ willingness to sell has strengthened, leading to consecutive downward quote adjustments during the day to facilitate deals. As standard-quality copper prices pull back, downstream purchase willingness improved, with some low-priced cargoes being transacted gradually. Meanwhile, available high-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper remain scarce, keeping quotes relatively firm and providing some support to spot premiums. On balance, with high copper prices weighing on demand and suppliers actively lowering prices to sell, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract are expected to remain in positive territory today, with the overall center likely to stay under pressure, but improving transactions at lower prices may limit further downside room for premiums.

(2) Guangdong: On Aug 5, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Procurement sentiment for Guangdong copper cathode was 2.40, down 0.02 from the previous trading day, and selling sentiment was 2.81, down 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed in the database). Overall, falling inventory prompted suppliers to hold prices firm, but downstream purchases were cautious, resulting in relatively weak trading.
(3) Imported Copper: On August 5, the average warrant price dropped $4/mt from the previous trading day to $106/mt (price range $100-112/mt); the average B/L price dropped $4/mt from the previous trading day to $101/mt (price range $95-107/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) dropped $3/mt from the previous trading day to $68/mt (price range $64-72/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving in August.
(4) Secondary Copper: On August 5, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,230 yuan/mt, up 410 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 180 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price of copper scrap rose 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.68, and the purchase sentiment index rose to 2. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,077 yuan/mt, down 92 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,760 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, stronger copper prices boosted copper scrap suppliers' willingness to sell. In addition, active orders from end-use wire and cable clients and faster cargo pick-up by traders led to ample orders for secondary copper rod enterprises, which urgently needed to procure raw materials from the market to replenish inventories. As a result, trading in the copper scrap market was relatively active during the day.
Price: On the macro front, US ADP employment increased by just 44,000 in July, below market expectations. The cooling labor market eased some concerns about interest rate hikes, and copper prices still edged up despite hawkish signals from Fed officials Kashkari and Cook. In the Middle East, Trump stated on Wednesday morning Beijing time that a US-Iran agreement would be reached within 48 hours. Iran and Oman were also close to reaching a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, but the new route was only a temporary arrangement and the strait's opening still came with conditions, leaving geopolitical uncertainties. Fundamentals-wise, on the supply side, arrivals of domestic copper cathode and imported copper cathode increased slightly recently, and with high copper prices, suppliers' willingness to sell strengthened, further easing the tightness in spot supply. On the demand side, end-use demand remained weak during the traditional consumption off-season, and high copper prices further dampened downstream purchase willingness, with the market mainly restocking on a need-to basis. Overall, copper prices are expected to edge up today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

11 hours ago

Panguna Copper Mine Moves Closer to Potential Redevelopment as Lloyds Metals Receives Preparatory Works Approval

According to foreign media reports, Lloyds Metals & Energy has been authorized to undertake preparatory works and feasibility activities aimed at assessing the potential redevelopment of the Panguna copper-gold mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea, nearly four decades after the operation was shut down. The Autonomous Bougainville Government granted the authorization on August 7, allowing Lloyds to carry out an approved programme of preparatory and feasibility work required to assess and plan the future redevelopment of the mine. Lloyds is acting as the approved development partner of government-owned Bougainville Minerals, which holds the mining lease covering Panguna. The project represents a potentially significant source of long-term copper supply. Panguna's remaining reserves are estimated at approximately 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 19.3 million oz of gold, while Lloyds plans to revalidate the project's resource base as part of the redevelopment process. The mine has remained closed since 1989. The latest authorization follows the granting of a 25-year mining lease to Bougainville Minerals in June, providing a framework for further evaluation of the dormant asset. However, the current approval does not permit construction or copper production to begin. Any progression into those stages will require additional approvals, meaning a potential restart remains subject to further technical, regulatory and development work. The renewed progress at Panguna is notable given the scale of the historical deposit and growing efforts globally to develop additional copper supply. The immediate impact on mine supply remains limited, but successful feasibility work and resource revalidation could provide greater clarity on whether one of the world's largest dormant copper assets can eventually return to production.

11 hours ago

Bezant Resources Completes First Blast at Namibian Copper-Gold Project, Aiming for Concentrate Production

Bezant Resources PLC has completed the first blast at the Hope open pit within its 90%-owned Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia, marking a further step toward mining and future concentrate production at the project. The initial blast involved approximately 20,000 tonnes of material and is expected to liberate around 2,000 tonnes of commercially viable mineralisation. Preliminary evaluation of the exposed mineralisation indicates that its location and grade are broadly consistent with the project's existing geological block model. Following the blast, grade-control work will compare assay results from blasthole samples with the exposed mineralisation to refine ore selection. Mining and transportation of run-of-mine (ROM) ore to the Tsaoxaub Metals flotation plant are expected to begin shortly, where material will be stockpiled ahead of future plant commissioning. Preparations for further mining are also progressing. Blastholes have already been drilled for a second blast, while the mining contractor has commenced ground clearance and separation of ore and waste for haulage. Recruitment of plant operators is ongoing following the appointment of the plant site manager, while the mine geology team is working with external consultants to validate the existing block model. The first blast represents an important operational milestone as Hope & Gorob moves closer to the processing stage. The next key developments will be the delivery of ROM ore to the plant, commissioning of the flotation facility and eventual production of saleable concentrate, providing clearer indications of the project's transition from development into copper-gold production.

11 hours ago

12 hours ago

Antofagasta Cuts 2026 Copper Output Guidance Following Los Pelambres Shutdown

According to foreign media reports, Chilean copper producer Antofagasta has lowered its 2026 copper production guidance following a weather-related shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine, reducing expected output at a time when global copper mine supply remains under pressure. Antofagasta now expects to produce 625,000–655,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, compared with its previous guidance of 650,000–700,000 tonnes. The revised range lowers the midpoint of the company's production outlook by 35,000 tonnes and reduces the upper end of its forecast by 45,000 tonnes. The downgrade follows the temporary shutdown of Los Pelambres in July after extreme rainfall affected Chile's Coquimbo Region. Although no significant damage was reported to major infrastructure, repairs are required to some pipeline platforms and water-management systems following the disruption. Despite lower production, stronger copper prices supported Antofagasta's financial performance during the first half of 2026. EBITDA increased 27% year on year to $2.84 billion, while operating cash flow rose 53% to $2.77 billion. First-half cash costs declined 8% year on year to $1.22/lb, although the company previously indicated that full-year costs are expected to increase amid persistently elevated fuel prices. From a copper-market perspective, the guidance reduction represents a further downward adjustment to expected mine supply from Chile, the world's largest copper-producing country. The disruption at Los Pelambres also highlights the continued vulnerability of near-term supply to operational and weather-related interruptions, with Antofagasta's reduced production outlook adding to existing constraints on global copper mine growth.

12 hours ago