Deep Earthquake Risks Emerge; Codelco Suspends Andes Norte Expansion Project at El Teniente Copper Mine [SMM Analysis]

Published: Aug 5, 2026 14:47
[Deep Seismic Risks Emerge, Codelco Suspends Andes Norte Expansion Project at El Teniente Copper Mine] Codelco temporarily suspended development and construction activities at the Andes Norte project of the El Teniente copper mine due to potential new-type seismic risks emerging in deep areas, while other production areas of the mine remain in operation. The company will further strengthen seismic monitoring and technical assessment and has not yet announced a resumption time. Andes Norte is an important project for the deep resource succession of El Teniente. This suspension may increase uncertainty over the mine’s medium and long-term production recovery and the commissioning of deep projects.

       

       On August 4, Codelco announced a temporary suspension of development and construction activities at the Andes Norte project of its El Teniente copper mine, due to a potential new-type seismic risk in the deep area of the project. This measure applies only to the Andes Norte project and does not entail a full shutdown of the El Teniente mine; other production areas remain operational, with seismic monitoring and related safety measures continuing.

       Codelco stated that data and technical analysis collected over the past six months indicate that, as works advance deeper into the deposit, the Andes Norte area may exhibit a seismic phenomenon distinct from those previously known and managed at the mine. During the suspension, the company will further enhance instrument installation, seismic monitoring, and technical analysis, and will evaluate the project’s subsequent construction arrangements after clarifying and implementing the necessary risk control measures. Currently, Codelco has not announced a specific timeline for resuming construction, and activities of contractors involved in the project development and construction will also be suspended simultaneously.

       Andes Norte, together with Andesita and Diamante, forms the deep development project portfolio of the El Teniente copper mine, aimed at further extending mining activities to the deeper Teniente 9 level. As of the end of 2025, the construction progress of the Andes Norte project was approximately 81%. The entire project portfolio plans to add approximately 2 billion mt of ore reserves, with an average copper grade of about 0.86%, and to support El Teniente in maintaining a daily average ore processing capacity of 137,000 mt, extending the mine life by over 50 years.

       On July 31, 2025, a severe rock burst and tunnel collapse accident occurred near the Andesita project of the El Teniente mine, resulting in the deaths of six workers, after which multiple production and development areas were restricted. Affected by this, El Teniente’s copper production in 2025 fell 13% YoY to 310,000 mt. Codelco had previously expected the mine’s copper production in 2026 to be about 301,000 mt, with output potentially remaining at relatively low levels over the next five years.

      The current suspension of the Andes Norte project is expected not to directly affect the short-term copper production of existing areas at El Teniente, but may further delay the succession of deep resources and the future production recovery process. With the Andesita project still under continuity plan assessment, the renewed suspension of Andes Norte will also increase uncertainty for Codelco in achieving the medium and long-term production recovery targets of El Teniente. Currently, Codelco has not disclosed the potential investment adjustments and additional copper production losses resulting from this suspension.

 

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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