Platinum and palladium surge violently, spot consumption remains sluggish [SMM Daily Review]

[SMM Flash] Iridium and ruthenium markets are facing increased price risks as elevated prices, constrained supply and evolving technologies reshape the outlook for these minor PGMs. A five-year market assessment through 2030 highlights the importance of monitoring supply, demand, stocks and technological developments. While higher prices could provide some scope to increase mine supply in the near term, longer-term production remains more complex, with primary supply exposed to developments in key producing regions including South Africa, Zimbabwe and Russia. On the demand side, record-high prices are expected to encourage greater material efficiency, substitution and technological innovation. Iridium demand remains linked to high-purity crystal growth, electrochemical applications, catalysis and the hydrogen economy, although slower development of hydrogen projects has reduced some longer-term growth expectations. Ruthenium continues to benefit from data-storage applications, particularly as AI drives demand for data infrastructure, while chemical catalysis and emerging hydrogen and ammonia applications offer additional opportunities. The market outlook to 2030 will ultimately depend on the balance between constrained mine supply and changing end-use demand. Substitution and new technologies could create downside risks for prices, while limited liquidity and the growing recognition of iridium and ruthenium as critical materials could amplify supply risks. Monitoring mine economics, technological shifts and price sensitivity across major end-use sectors will therefore remain important for producers, fabricators and consumers.

[SMM Flash] Sibanye-Stillwater is shifting towards a more domestically focused strategy, prioritising growth from its South African PGM operations while reducing exposure to overseas expansion. Newly appointed CEO Richard Stewart is targeting contiguous expansion across the company’s Rustenburg and Kroondal assets, supported by greater mechanisation. PGM production is currently expected to decline from 1.7 million oz/year to around 1.2 million oz/year by 2030, but planned projects could lift output to approximately 1.5 million oz/year, with potential to reach 1.8 million oz/year if market conditions support further investment. The strategy also places greater emphasis on chrome as a standalone commercial business, rather than solely a PGM by-product. Sibanye-Stillwater produced around 2.3 million tonnes of chrome in 2025, equivalent to roughly 10% of South Africa’s output, and sees potential to increase production towards 4 million tonnes annually. The company estimates R25–26 billion in total spending is required for its planned projects, with the strategy aimed at strengthening cash generation and reducing risk by concentrating investment in assets and jurisdictions where it has established operational expertise.