SMM August 4 news:
Today, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 23,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 23,825 yuan/mt, a low of 23,510 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 23,800 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt or 1.06% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 9,805 lots, open interest stood at 35,500 lots, with a daily position change of -4,865 lots. The price stood above MA5 (23,620), MA10 (23,422), MA20 (23,271.50), MA40 (23,352.63), and MA60 (23,745.50), indicating strengthening short-term repair momentum. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (55.87) was above the DEA (-46.64), with the histogram recording 205.02, as bullish momentum continued to release. Trading volume remained low, and the daily position change of -4,865 lots showed continued capital outflow. Today’s rise was more of a short-covering rally, and the sustainability of the upward momentum still needs to be observed.
SMM Comment: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centered on fund repatriation and strait security, and the nuclear issue is about to initiate consultations. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow. Disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation in the strait. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell both in China and overseas. In the short term, bearish factors are dominant, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.
Today, the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,625 yuan/mt, hit a session high of 2,655 yuan/mt, a low of 2,623 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,641 yuan/mt, up 7 yuan/mt or 0.27% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 124,000 lots, open interest was 215,600 lots, with a daily position change of -11,536 lots. Prices remained below MA5 (2,645.20), MA10 (2,673.90), MA20 (2,687.55), MA40 (2,761.45), and MA60 (2,770.80). The moving average system maintained a bearish alignment, with the weak pattern yet to reverse. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF (-35.48) was below the DEA (-32.66), with the histogram recording -5.62, indicating residual bearish momentum. Trading volume pulled back, and the daily position change of -11,536 lots showed significant capital outflow. Today’s rebound was more a reflection of short-covering at low levels.
SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. By inventory segment, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued mild destocking, but due to sharp price fluctuations and market divergence over the outlook, restocking willingness was weak, with terminal users mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some plants in the north. Under production constraints, in-factory inventory was consumed first. After the maintenance ends next week, this impact is expected to gradually fade. Port inventory continued to build, as overseas port arrivals stayed high, with imported resources supplementing spot supply and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, the inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to slight buildup, with supply and demand staying loose, and alumina prices continuing to consolidate on a weak note.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]
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