US-Iran Strait tug-of-war, silver prices moved sideways [SMM Daily Review]

Published: Aug 4, 2026 10:45

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[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Strait Games Tug-of-War, Silver Prices Move Sideways] SMM August 4 – The US and Iran hold different positions on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to mixed bullish and bearish factors in precious metals. South Korea's central bank gold purchases provide medium and long-term support. Spot cargo offers are firm at the beginning of the month, with transactions remaining at parity, while weak demand persists.

Today, SMM’s 10:00 a.m. price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(T+D) was 14,251 yuan/kg, with the premium range quoted at parity against TD to +10 yuan/kg, averaging +5 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz might reopen on Tuesday (calling it “Iran’s last chance”), but Iran refused to fully open the strait before the war ends, and US-Iran representatives had no plans to meet within 24 hours. The Bank of Korea, for the first time in 13 years, planed to purchase domestically refined gold bars, with official buying providing medium- and long-term support for physical demand. Overall, the precious metals futures market saw mixed long and short forces and maintained a sideways consolidation pattern in the short term.

In the spot market, quotes were firm at the beginning of the month, with transaction support temporarily maintained near parity. This morning, the spot-futures price spread widened slightly, and trader quotes mostly leaned toward a discount of 50-60 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2610 contract. Smelters and downstream players reported transactions concentrated at TD parity to +5 yuan/kg. Shanghai’s morning quotes were mainly concentrated at TD parity to +10 yuan/kg; in Shenzhen, some standard-grade materials were quoted around parity, and although low-priced supplies existed, they did not significantly disrupt spot trade. Today’s market quotes for the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were at a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg.

Overall, the waning of short-term risk-off sentiment and the rally in US stocks created overhead pressure, and silver prices are expected to trade within the $50-60/oz range. In the spot market, the supply side has yet to recover this month, while demand still hinges on export and PV orders; the overall weak picture has yet to improve.

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