Lithium Ore:
The lithium ore market continued to consolidate on a subdued note last week, with the core contradiction not a sudden loosening of spot supply, but rather that after lithium carbonate futures fell steadily, buyers calculated raw material costs based on lithium chemical prices and smelting margins, pushing for lower prices at a pace significantly faster than price concessions from mines. The current fundamentals still show a “strong reality, weak expectations” pattern: as of July 30, lithium carbonate social inventory had fallen for 12 consecutive weeks to 114,300 mt, while that week’s production fell 1,027 mt WoW to 22,800 mt, and August battery production schedules are expected to grow 6%–8% MoM, offering near-term support for raw material consumption. However, the market’s trading center has shifted to forward supply releases, with the restart of Greenbushes CGP3 approaching and the project’s lithium concentrates production guidance for FY2027 reaching 1.55 million–1.75 million mt, further reinforcing expectations of a supply recovery on the mining side next year. Lithium ore prices are expected to continue consolidating on a subdued note, tracking lithium chemical prices in the short term, but with limited available spot cargo and low willingness from mines to sell at depressed prices, the downtrend is more likely to manifest as a gradual decline in transaction centers rather than a rapid, runaway drop in ore prices.
Lithium Carbonate:
Early this week, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot prices continued to fall from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened low at 137,500 yuan/mt today, fluctuated lower after the opening and fell rapidly, hitting an intraday low of 135,600 yuan/mt; subsequently, bulls entered to push prices higher in a rebound, and the morning session consolidated near the average price line; near late morning, bulls launched a concentrated push, driving prices quickly above 140,000 yuan/mt and shot up to 140,800 yuan/mt; the afternoon saw bearish selling pressure and profit-taking trigger a pullback, with prices moving sideways in the 138,800–139,000 yuan/mt range late in the session, eventually closing down 1.15% at 138,900 yuan/mt, with open interest down 3,474 lots. In the spot market, fitting the first working day of the month, downstream material plants received deliveries under long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials, while spot order purchasing was relatively cautious, with buyers only purchasing as needed at relatively low prices; upstream lithium chemical plants maintained a willingness to hold prices firm for spot orders, and at the start of the month they mainly secured supply through long-term contracts plus additional volumes under those contracts. Overall, both market inquiries and actual transaction activity declined.
Lithium Hydroxide:
At the start of the week, lithium hydroxide prices edged lower, with the average price falling to 128,000 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous day. Market sentiment in the lithium market was relatively subdued today, but lithium chemical producers showed a strong inclination to hold prices firm, with most refraining from quoting and a small number still insisting on prices above 135,000 yuan/mt; downstream players had engaged in some minor stockpiling earlier, and long-term contract cargo pick-up covered most of their production needs, so at current price levels there was a pronounced wait-and-see sentiment, with inquiries mostly limited to price comparisons and limited willingness to actively restock. Trader quotes for lithium carbonate futures September contract were at a discount of 13,000-17,000 yuan, but large orders saw relatively small transactions. At this stage, supply and demand largely met expectations, and the momentum for price recovery remained weak. In the short term, prices are expected to consolidate at relatively low levels.
Refined Cobalt:
On Monday, the spot price center for refined cobalt continued to move lower, drifting lower. Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained their EXW price at 355,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium-sized smelters have largely suspended external quotations due to increasing losses. After continued destocking during the previous period, the inventory available for sale in the trade sector has dropped to a low level. Some enterprises, based on bullish expectations for the future market, have begun to slow down the pace of shipments. For the few enterprises still quoting, the spot-futures price spread remained at a premium of 1,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream enterprises are still in their summer break cycle, with generally weak purchase willingness, only maintaining small volumes of essential restocking. Overall, July-August marks the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, with limited demand-side support, so prices are likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.
Intermediate Products:
On Monday, trading in the cobalt intermediate products market remained sluggish, with limited transactions, and the price center slowly shifted lower. Recently, some Chinese-invested miners launched tenders for intermediate products, with bid prices falling below $22/lb. Affected by the sustained weakness in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, downstream smelters and traders' psychological price level for raw materials has further pulled back to around $20-21/lb, and some enterprises can only accept prices below $20/lb, so actual deals are yet to be reached. In the short term, miners still intend to hold prices firm, but downstream demand support is insufficient, prolonging the standoff. A price recovery still needs to wait for a rebound in actual demand.
Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride):
On Monday, the divergence between upstream and downstream players for cobalt sulphate widened further, with limited actual transactions. Supply side, virgin smelters using intermediate products and MHP, supported by production costs, kept their offers firm above 80,000 yuan/mt; recycling enterprises, leveraging raw material cost advantages, concentrated their quotes at 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt, with a few actively selling enterprises able to lower this to under 75,000 yuan/mt. Demand side remained sluggish, with downstream enterprises lacking purchase willingness and tending to seek off-spec or aged cargoes to lower procurement costs. Recently, there were transactions for substandard products and aged cargoes below 73,000 yuan/mt. The difference between their actual price adjusted for quality and that of new material was limited, but in a weak demand environment, this price level was used by downstream players as a negotiation benchmark, forcing some recycling enterprises to follow suit and drop their prices. Furthermore, following the sustained drop in refined cobalt prices, the cost of producing cobalt sulphate by re-dissolving it has fallen to 72,000-73,000 yuan/mt, reinforcing downstream expectations to push for lower prices. In the short term, the cobalt salt market is showing a slow downtrend, and stabilization and recovery still need to wait for the release of downstream concentrated restocking demand. This period is expected to occur after mid-to-late August.
On Monday, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish, with trading maintaining sporadic levels. Supply side, from a real-time cost perspective, the costs of recycled materials and the refined cobalt refinancing route have been significantly lower than current market quotes and actual transaction prices. The key factor affecting enterprise pricing lies in the fact that upstream smelters generally hold large-scale inventories, mostly high-cost inventories. Facing a falling market, it is difficult to lower average costs through low-point purchases, so high-cost inventories provide some support to quotes, and quotes remain relatively firm overall. But at the same time, some enterprises have begun to gradually lower quotes to promote shipments, trying to gradually dilute earlier losses by speeding up turnover. However, downstream capacity is extremely limited, and even with price reductions, it is difficult to achieve volume transactions. Demand side, Co3O4 enterprises' own inventories are already at high levels, and there are no signs of demand growth, with extremely low current purchase willingness. Overall, in the short term, cobalt chloride prices still have downside room.
Cobalt salt (Co3O4):
On Monday, the Co3O4 market was also thinly traded, with low trading volumes.Supply side, when their own inventories are high, enterprises face a dilemma of thin profits under current raw material cost accounting and the need to bear inventory buildup risks, so they generally control production at low levels. Although there are occasional rumors of ultra-low-priced supplies in the market, from communication with various parties, the existence of individual ultra-low-priced transactions is not denied, but it is not enough to represent the mainstream market level. Demand side, although cathode plants have inquiry activities, actual finalized purchases are limited. Each company's current raw material inventory is sufficient to support production, with no urgent restocking demand. Overall, Co3O4 prices also have the possibility of further downward adjustment in the short term.
Nickel sulphate:
On August 3, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price slightly declined.
Cost side, there were renewed reports of easing tensions in the Middle East, nickel prices plunged, and the spot production cost of nickel sulphate fell. Supply side, the tight supply pattern of intermediate products has not changed, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices such as sulphuric acid remain high, some nickel salt smelters have expectations for production cuts, and facing rebounding nickel prices, some enterprises have the willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, although the purchasing period has arrived, some downstream enterprises have certain long-term supply agreements or inventory accumulation, spot order building sentiment is weak, and acceptance of nickel salt prices is relatively low. Today, the upstream nickel salt smelters’ Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor was 1.8, the downstream precursor plants’ purchasing sentiment factor was 2.6, and integrated enterprises’ sentiment factor was 2.5 (historical data can be queried by logging into the database).
Looking ahead, spot market activity is expected to remain sluggish in the short term, and nickel sulphate prices are under overall pressure.
Ternary cathode precursor:
Early this week, ternary cathode precursor prices declined. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down, cobalt sulphate prices fell, and manganese sulphate prices dipped slightly.
On the discount side, for August and Q3 orders, some producers showed willingness to raise discounts due to higher raw material costs for sulphate salts earlier on. For long-term contracts, coefficients negotiated by some producers at the start of the year have not yet been increased. For quarterly contracts, downstream clients also showed weak acceptance of coefficient hikes, with levels largely stable compared to Q2. On the spot order side, given the relatively weak performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices recently, some downstream enterprises sought toll processing of raw materials, with August order coefficients expected to remain steady overall MoM from July.
Production side, export orders for top-tier players continued to perform well this month, with production schedules running at high levels. Domestic top-tier producers saw a slight recovery in operating loads, while some small and mid-sized producers maintained relatively low production schedules due to the off-season.
Looking ahead, sulphate salt prices have yet to see a clear rebound, and pricing for new orders should focus on the pace of downstream stockpiling in Q3.
Ternary cathode material:
Early this week, ternary cathode material prices declined. Raw material side, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices declined further and more notably, while transaction prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also continued to fall. On the trading sentiment side, as lithium chemical prices again touched periodic lows, some cathode plants and battery cell manufacturers made bulk purchases for essential restocking, though volumes were relatively limited, and the overall market still held expectations of further price declines ahead. On the discount side, with the lithium battery consumption tax about to be reinstated, battery cell manufacturers may pass some cost pressure upstream, further increasing the difficulty of raising discounts. Demand side, August orders remained stable with slight growth. EV market demand in China and overseas stayed high, while the consumer market showed no signs of recovery yet.
LFP:
LFP prices edged up by around 120 yuan/mt this week, mainly driven by higher cost support from lithium carbonate (SMM lithium carbonate prices rose by a cumulative 500 yuan/mt this week). However, the LFP price increase was notably weaker than that of lithium chemicals, indicating that downstream acceptance of price hikes remained cautious. Processing fee side, recent price increases initiated by top-tier enterprises are gradually taking effect, but with a clear divergence in models—top-tier battery cell manufacturers generally adopted a fixed-price model of raising base prices, not linked to phosphoric acid or iron phosphate, while small and mid-sized battery cell manufacturers predominantly chose a floating settlement method tied to phosphoric acid or iron phosphate prices. This reflects lower acceptance of the linkage model among top-tier clients, with suppliers resorting to raising base prices to make up for processing margins. Production side, LFP enterprises maintained high operating rates this week, with the production ramp-up pace accelerating. Downstream new order demand continued to rise in volume. According to the SMM survey, July demand mainly came from the commercial vehicle and ESS sectors, driving the industry-wide cathode material production schedule up by roughly 7% MoM, with actual implementation also faring well. Production this week continued to rise steadily. Inventory side, orders at some enterprises still exceeded production capacity. Under delivery pressure, inventory days continued to decline, with the overall industry destocking trend clearly evident. Looking ahead to next month, downstream demand expectations remain strong, and enterprise production schedules are being further raised, with the industry-wide monthly production schedule expected to grow by around 5% MoM in August.
Iron phosphate:
This week, SMM iron phosphate prices gradually rose. Upstream and downstream enterprises have largely concluded a new round of negotiations. The intended transaction prices of upstream iron phosphate producers all increased by 200-300 yuan/mt from the previous month. The purchase willingness prices of downstream LFP enterprises declined, mainly due to falling raw material prices. Raw material side, phosphoric acid prices edged down in July. Affected by a slight correction in sulphur prices and still-low prices for thermal-process acid, phosphoric acid transaction prices this month were around 9,500-10,100 yuan. Ferrous sulphate market prices remained around 800 yuan/mt. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices were stable. Although upstream producers had intentions to raise prices, due to price controls and low purchase willingness from downstream iron phosphate enterprises, prices struggled to rise, with market prices at around 7,500 yuan/mt. Production side, iron phosphate enterprises generally maintained stable production this week. However, due to overall capacity constraints, July overall growth was limited. Downstream demand, LFP demand continued to improve, with a total MoM increase of 7% expected.
LCO:
On Monday, the LCO market was relatively stable. Supply side, facing persistently sluggish demand, each producer's production and shipments have been at low levels since the beginning of the year. To compete for market share and boost shipments, enterprises had to adopt price-cut strategies. Current profit margins have been significantly compressed compared to earlier periods, but actual shipments have not shown significant improvement. Demand side, despite some recovery in battery cell manufacturers' production schedules, the growth has not transmitted to the LCO segment. One important reason is the increased proportion of downstream switching to ternary materials. Overall, LCO prices are more likely to remain stable.
Anode:
This week, China's artificial graphite market performance was generally stable. The supply-demand relationship maintained the previous pattern of tight effective spot supply. Cost side, raw material prices continued to climb. Coupled with cost overhangs not yet fully digested from earlier periods, current cost support remained strong. Anode enterprises had strong expectations for price hikes. However, affected by production cycle lags, the cost pressure from this period's raw material increases has not been fully reflected in spot prices. Natural graphite, end-use demand performance was weak, downstream purchasing pressure for lower prices was widespread, and the market trading atmosphere was slightly sluggish. However, since prices have been hovering sideways near the cost line for a long time, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers has entered a stalemate, further capping downside room.
Looking ahead, benefiting from improving demand, tight supply, and the gradual realization of cost pass-through, artificial graphite's price center is likely to rise steadily. Natural graphite, due to insufficient demand-side driving force, will likely consolidate on a weak note in the short term, with a market breakthrough pending new catalytic factors.
Separator:
This week, the separator market was generally stable. Specific quotations, high-end wet-process separator prices were firm: 5μm (5μ+2μ) quoted at 1.57-1.87 yuan/m², 7μm (7μ+2μ) mainstream quotations were 1.14-1.337 yuan/m², and 9μm (9μ+3μ) quoted at 1.135-1.29 yuan/m². July-August is the digestion window for downstream battery cell enterprises after earlier price hikes. The purchasing side mainly focused on rigid-demand restocking, without releasing concentrated stockpiling demand. Production schedule pace, leading separator enterprises maintained full production. The overall industry operating rate remained above 80%. Supply and demand were still in a tight balance. However, further upward price momentum was weak, mainly because the current market lacks new catalytic factors, with upstream and downstream in a phased equilibrium. Structural, base film prices were constrained by low-price strategies from second- and third-tier enterprises, limiting their price increases. Coated product prices were relatively firm, supported by ESS and high-end power battery demand. As the traditional order negotiation cycle for September approaches, a new round of price talks will become the market focus. If downstream production schedules rise MoM as expected, coupled with limited supply-side growth, prices are expected to have room for a slight new round of upward exploration. In the short term, separator prices will likely remain mainly stable.
Electrolyte
This week, electrolyte market prices rose. Cost side, spot lithium carbonate prices showed no significant fluctuations this week. LiPF6 costs were relatively stable. Electrolyte enterprises, influenced by optimistic expectations for future demand and the recent continuous price increases, saw their overall purchase willingness heat up, promoting further market price increases. Additives, due to continuous demand growth, coupled with production halts at individual VC enterprises, effective industry supply contracted. The supply-demand tightness further intensified, with prices rising sharply. Solvent side, disturbed by overseas geopolitical conflicts, crude oil price increases drove up prices for carbonate ester solvent raw materials ethylene oxide and propylene oxide, with solvent prices consequently edging up. Currently, various electrolyte raw material prices are rising, with cost pressure continuously transmitting, pushing up electrolyte prices. Supply and demand, although the industry is in the traditional off-season, battery enterprises, driven by Q3 peak season stockpiling demand and sustained high ESS sector demand, saw battery cell production continue to rise. Electrolyte enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, with industry production rising in tandem. Overall, electrolyte price trends exhibit strong raw material cost correlation. Current cost pressures from rising prices of core raw materials like VC will gradually transmit downstream, and there are expectations for further electrolyte price adjustments upward.
Sodium-ion battery:
This week, the full-production trend for sodium-ion battery NFPP cathodes continued, with output shipped immediately upon production. Inventory remained at extremely low levels, supply elasticity was limited, and Q4 supply tightness expectations intensified. The industry is simultaneously laying out dual NFPP and NFS routes, with NFS still pending verification. Hard carbon anode capacity bottlenecks are prominent. Enterprises dared not accept large orders due to capacity constraints. The toll processing model, due to large parameter differences and difficult quality control, struggles to ramp up quickly in the short term, with significant price stratification. Demand side, core client shipments were stable. Application scenarios are extending from two/three-wheelers and start-stop products to AIDC, UPS, and electric motorcycle sectors.
Recycling:
Raw material end, this week, lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, while cobalt sulphate prices fell continuously. This week, the ternary, LCO, and LFP material types, LFP wet process: Taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, the current LFP electrode black mass price is 6,250-6,700 yuan per % lithium, with prices basically stable WoW from last Thursday's transactions. The current LFP battery black mass price is 5,500-5,900 yuan per % lithium, with the price spread versus electrode black mass gradually widening. The main reason is that many LFP repair enterprises are production active. They mainly purchase LFP electrodes, broadening the demand market for waste LFP electrodes. Therefore, some LFP wet-process enterprises switched to purchasing LFP battery black mass or procured LFP electrode black mass at additional high prices. Ternary and LCO, the nickel and cobalt payables for ternary electrode black mass were around 76-79%. Low-price transactions in the market began to appear successively, with the low-end coefficient dropping. Cobalt and lithium payables for pure cobalt and high-cobalt scrap also edged down. Cobalt sulphate continued price falls, combined with sluggish end-use consumer market demand, leading to sluggish upstream wet-process enterprise purchases and transactions.
Downstream and end-users:
This week, domestic and overseas DC-side battery cabin prices remained generally stable. On July 29, China Coal Tendering Co., Ltd. announced the bid winning candidate announcement for the PC general contracting project of the China Coal Group Hami Comprehensive Energy Demonstration Base ESS power station. The first candidate was Xuchang Electrical Technology Co., Ltd., with a total bid of 751.186068 million yuan, equivalent to a unit price of 0.5366 Yuan/W. The second candidate was China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group Co., Ltd., with a total bid of 814.05 million yuan, equivalent to 0.5815 Yuan/W. The third candidate was China Anneng Group Second Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd., with a total bid of 828.42852981 million yuan, equivalent to 0.5917 Yuan/W.
News:
[CITIC Securities: The painful period has passed; right-side opportunities are coming; bullish on performance in the August new car catalyst period] CITIC Securities research reports point out that A-share selected targets, affected by intensified internal diversion within the Harmony lntelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) system, rising prices of storage and lithium carbonate, etc., in H1, experienced significant pressure on volume, price, and profit. Coupled with the siphoning effect of funds by the AI sector, stock prices went through a prolonged painful period. Recently, with H1 earnings report negatives realized and the market funds' rebalancing between AI and non-AI sectors, the rebound exceeded expectations, and CITIC Securities is bullish on performance in the August new car catalyst period. (Jin10 Data APP)
[July’s NEV sales diverged, with annual target completion progress widening] As of August 2, China’s July NEV sales were successively released. Leap Motor ranked first among new force automakers with 101,267 units, becoming the only one to exceed the 100,000-unit mark that month. Harmony lntelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) delivered 45,046 units, ranking second. XPeng Motors delivered 38,027 units, ranking third. NIO, Zeekr, and Li Auto followed closely. With the January-July combined sales data released, the cumulative delivery volumes and annual target completion progress among automakers further widened. (from Wall Street CN APP)
[Cui Dongshu: H1 total lithium battery demand surged 53% YoY, industry growth shifted to multi-support drivers] Cui Dongshu from the CPCA stated that H1 2026 total lithium battery full-scope demand reached 1.0689 billion kWh, a significant 53% YoY increase. Industry growth has shifted from a single driver from NEVs in the past to a new pattern with multi-support from energy storage, overseas exports, and commercial vehicles. Combined NEV demand was 793.19 million kWh, up 37% YoY. However, domestic retail passenger NEV demand slightly fell 2% YoY, formally entering stock competition. Vehicle exports and power battery export markets became growth drivers. Lithium battery customs exports maintained a steady 54% growth rate. Synchronous growth in domestic sales and exports of new energy commercial vehicles offset weak domestic demand. The demand structure significantly restructured, with NEV demand proportion falling back to 74% and energy storage proportion rising to 26%. Energy storage and overseas markets became the core pillars supporting the industry’s high growth. ESS demand, calculated based on production and sales, was the industry’s biggest growth engine, with H1 demand of 275.71 million kWh, skyrocketing 130% YoY, with single-month June growth hitting as high as 333%. High oil prices and the development of wind and solar power spurred the explosion in energy storage. (Jin10 Data APP)
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SMM New Energy Research Team
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