Refined Cobalt:
On Monday, the spot price center of refined cobalt continued to shift lower, drifting downwards. Supply side, mainstream smelters maintained EXW prices at 355,000 yuan/mt, while other small and medium smelters had largely suspended external price quotes due to increased loss pressure. After previous sustained destocking in the trading segment, available inventory in hand had dropped to a low level. Some enterprises, based on expectations of a price rebound, began to slow their pace of selling, with bid-ask spreads maintained at a premium of 1,000-10,000 yuan/mt for a few quoted enterprises. Demand side, downstream enterprises were still in their summer break period, with generally weak purchase willingness and only maintaining minimal essential restocking. Overall, July-August was the traditional consumption off-season for refined cobalt, with limited demand support; short-term prices are likely to continue to run in the doldrums.
Cobalt Intermediate Products:
On Monday, trading in the cobalt intermediate products market remained sluggish with limited transactions, and the price center slowly shifted lower. Recently, some Chinese miners initiated tenders for intermediate products, with indicative prices falling below $22/lb. Affected by the continued weakness in cobalt salt and refined cobalt prices, downstream smelters and traders further lowered their psychological price levels for raw materials to around $20-21/lb. Some enterprises could only accept prices below $20/lb, so actual deals were still not reached. In the short term, miners' willingness to hold prices firm persists, but downstream demand support is insufficient, with the game of wills continuing. A price recovery still needs to wait for a rebound in actual demand.
Cobalt Sulphate:
On Monday, the divergence between upstream and downstream in cobalt sulphate further widened, with limited actual transactions. Supply side, primary smelters using intermediate products and MHP to produce were supported by costs, with price quotes still holding firm above 80,000 yuan/mt. Recycling enterprises, leveraging their raw material cost advantages, had price quotes concentrated around 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt, with a few eager sellers lowering to below 75,000 yuan/mt. Demand side remained weak. Downstream enterprises had insufficient purchase willingness, tending to seek non-standard or old stock to lower procurement costs. Recently, the market saw deals for substandard and old stock below 73,000 yuan/mt, but after quality adjustments, the actual price difference from new products was limited. However, in a weak demand environment, this price level was used as a bargaining baseline by downstream buyers, causing some recycling enterprises to passively follow the price cuts. Additionally, after the sustained fall in refined cobalt, the cost of converting it back to produce cobalt sulphate had dropped to 72,000-73,000 yuan/mt, further strengthening downstream expectations of pushing for lower prices. In the short term, the cobalt salt market has a slow downward trend. Stabilization and recovery still need to wait for the release of downstream concentrated restocking demand, and this is expected to occur after mid-to-late August.
Cobalt Chloride:
On Monday, the cobalt chloride market continued in a sluggish state, with trading maintained at a sporadic level. Supply side, in terms of real-time cost, the costs of recycled materials and the refined cobalt conversion route had already fallen significantly below current market quotes and actual transaction prices. The key factor affecting enterprise pricing was that upstream smelters generally held large-scale inventories, most of which were at high cost. Facing a continuously falling market, they found it difficult to lower average costs through low-level procurement, so high-cost inventories provided some support for price quotes, keeping offers relatively firm overall. However, at the same time, some enterprises had begun to gradually lower their quotes to boost shipments, attempting to progressively dilute earlier losses by speeding up turnover. Nevertheless, downstream absorption capacity was extremely limited, and even price cuts struggled to achieve volume deals. Demand side, Co3O4 enterprises themselves had high inventory levels, and there were no signs of increasing demand; their current purchase willingness was extremely low. On balance, cobalt chloride prices still have downside room in the short term.
Cobalt Salt (Co3O4):
On Monday, the Co3O4 market was similarly sluggish with low trading volumes. Supply side, with their own high inventories, enterprises faced a dilemma of thin profits under current raw material cost calculations and the risk of inventory buildup. Therefore, they generally kept production at lower levels. Although there were occasional rumors of extremely low-price sources in the market, based on communication with various parties, the existence of isolated ultra-low-price deals could not be denied, but it was not enough to represent the mainstream level of the market. Demand side, cathode plants had made inquiries but with limited actual procurement. Each enterprise's current raw material inventory was sufficient to support production, with no urgent restocking needs for the time being. Overall, Co3O4 prices also have the likelihood of further reductions in the short term.
Cobalt Powder and Others:
On Monday, the cobalt powder market continued its weak trend. Mainstream producers quoted prices at 455,000-465,000 yuan/mt, with some transaction prices falling below 450,000 yuan/mt. Pressure in the industry chain was still gradually transmitting upwards. Downstream cemented carbide enterprises were constrained by end-user order performance, with raw material consumption speed showing no improvement and procurement pace lengthening. Besides long-term contract orders, spot order transactions were relatively limited. In the intermediary trading segment, willingness to sell had strengthened somewhat, with some low-price resources further lowering the market's psychological price level. On the raw material side, cobalt carbonate prices were under pressure, and as they approached the critical level of 200,000 yuan/mt, market trading tended to stagnate, lacking effective transaction guidance. From market sentiment, participants were mostly in a wait-and-see mode, generally believing that the market would only improve after August-September.
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
At the start of the week, ternary cathode precursor prices fell. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices slipped, and manganese sulphate prices softened a notch.
On discounts, for orders in August and Q3, due to the higher cost of sulphate raw materials in the earlier period, some producers had the willingness to raise discounts. For long-term contracts, some producers had finalized their annual contracts at the start of the year, with pricing coefficients not yet raised. For quarterly contracts, downstream acceptance of coefficient increases was also weak, with levels remaining generally stable compared to Q2. For spot orders, given the relatively weak performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices recently, some downstream enterprises sought toll processing of raw materials. Discounts for August orders were generally expected to hold steady with July.
On production, top-tier producers' export orders continued to perform well this month, with production schedules at relatively high levels. Domestic top-tier producers also saw some recovery in production utilization, but some small and medium producers still had relatively low production schedules due to the off-season.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have not yet shown a clear rebound. For subsequent new order prices, attention needs to be paid to the pace of downstream stockpiling in Q3.
Ternary Cathode Material:
At the beginning of the week, ternary cathode material prices moved lower. On the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices saw a small reduction, cobalt sulphate prices were further significantly lowered, while transaction prices for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide also continued to fall. In terms of market sentiment, as lithium chemical prices hit another short-term low, some cathode plants and battery cell manufacturers conducted batch purchases for rigid restocking, but the volume was relatively limited. The market as a whole still had expectations of price reductions ahead. On discounts, with the lithium battery consumption tax about to be reinstated, battery cell manufacturers may pass on some cost pressures upstream, making it even harder for discount increases to materialize. On demand, August orders were steady with some growth. Demand in the EV market both domestically and overseas remained high, but there were no signs of recovery in the consumer market yet.
LCO:
On Monday, the LCO market was relatively stable. Supply side, facing persistently sluggish demand, production and shipments of various enterprises had been at low levels since the beginning of the year. To compete for market share and boost shipments, enterprises had to resort to price cuts. While their current profit margins had been significantly compressed compared to earlier periods, actual shipment volumes showed no obvious improvement. Demand side, although battery cell manufacturers' production schedules had somewhat recovered, the growth did not trickle down to the LCO segment. One important reason was an increased proportion of downstream switching to ternary materials. Overall, the likelihood of LCO prices stabilizing is relatively high.
News:
[CITIC Securities: The painful period is over, right-side opportunities are emerging, and we are bullish on the performance of new car catalysts in August.] A CITIC Securities research report pointed out that in H1, A-share selected stocks faced obvious pressure on volume, price, and profit due to factors such as intensified diversion within the Harmony lntelligent Mobility Alliance (HIMA) system and rising prices of storage, lithium carbonate, etc. Combined with the siphon effect on funds from the AI sector, stock prices underwent a prolonged painful period. Recently, with the landing of negative interim report news and a rebalancing of market funds between AI and non-AI sectors, the rebound exceeded expectations. CITIC Securities is bullish on the performance of new car catalysts in August. (Jin10 Data APP)
[NEV automakers' sales diverged in July, and annual target completion rates widened gaps.] As of August 2nd, China's NEV sales for July were gradually released. Leap Motor ranked first among the new force automakers with 101,267 units, becoming the only new force automaker to break 100,000 units that month; HIMA delivered 45,046 units, ranking second; XPeng delivered 38,027 units, ranking third, with NIO, Zeekr, and Li Auto following closely. With the aggregated sales data for the first seven months being compiled, the cumulative deliveries and annual target completion rates between automakers have further widened the gaps. (From Wallstreetcn APP)
[Cui Dongshu: Total lithium battery demand grew 53% YoY in H1, with industry growth shifting to diversified support.] Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, stated that total lithium battery demand reached 1.0689 billion kWh in H1 2026, representing a significant 53% increase YoY. Industry growth has shifted from past single support from NEVs to a new pattern of diversified support from energy storage, overseas exports, and commercial vehicles. Combined NEV demand was 793.19 million kWh, up 37% YoY. However, domestic passenger NEV retail demand fell slightly by 2% YoY, officially entering stock competition. Vehicle exports and the power battery export market became sources of growth. Lithium battery Customs exports maintained a steady growth rate of 54%. For commercial NEVs, synchronized growth in domestic sales and exports offset weak domestic demand. The demand structure was significantly restructured, with NEV demand's share falling back to 74% and energy storage rising to 26%. Energy storage and overseas markets have become the core pillars supporting the industry's high growth. Energy storage and other demand estimated from production and sales was the biggest growth engine for the industry, with demand of 275.71 million kWh in H1, surging 130% YoY, and the June growth rate spiking to 333% in a single month. High oil prices and the development of wind and solar power brought about a storage boom. (Jin10 Data APP)
Disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
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Lv Yanlin 021-20707875
Zhou Zhicheng 021-51666711
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
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