At the beginning of the month, a new round of procurement cycle begins, Shanghai spot copper premiums edge up [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Aug 3, 2026 13:51

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the start of a new procurement cycle at the beginning of the month is expected to release some downstream and trader restocking demand, with intraday procurement sentiment rebounding from the previous trading day, providing some support to spot premiums. In terms of inventory, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 77,000 mt, up 7,500 mt WoW from last Thursday, mainly due to the concentrated arrivals of a batch of non-registered copper. Jiangsu social inventory was recorded at 20,100 mt, down 1,100 mt WoW from last Thursday, reflecting that local consumption, although weak overall, still saw some just-in-time procurement. As low-priced non-registered copper flowed into the market, spot supply pressure increased somewhat, which may suppress offers for registered standard-quality copper. Overall, with support from procurement demand at the start of the month, but combined effects of a significant increase in Shanghai inventory and supply replenishment from non-registered copper arrivals, Shanghai spot copper quotes against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow. The overall center is likely to consolidate around current levels, with relatively limited upside room.

SMM Aug 3:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE 2608 contract were quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt-330 yuan/mt, averaging a premium of 280 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2608 contract opened higher and showed a "W"-shaped pattern in early trading. It opened at 105,900 yuan/mt, then quickly dipped to 105,670 yuan/mt before rising to 105,860 yuan/mt and falling again, touching an intraday low of 105,680 yuan/mt. Prices then stabilized and continued to rise, closing at 105,830 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contract ranged 130-220 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract was between a loss of 540 yuan/mt and a loss of 440 yuan/mt.

In Shanghai, the sales sentiment index for copper cathode was 3, up 0.18 WoW, and the procurement sentiment index was 2.84, up 0.12 WoW; historical data can be queried in the database. At the market open, suppliers initially offered standard-quality copper at premiums of 300-350 yuan/mt, with brands like HMG-B and Lufang quoted at premiums of 320-350 yuan/mt, and brands like Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, and Jinfeng quoted at 300-320 yuan/mt. Suppliers then lowered their offers, with Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, and Yuguang quoted at a premium of 250 yuan/mt. Entering the second trading session, some suppliers cut offers further, with Tiefeng quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, while transactions for brands like Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintun PC were concluded at premiums of 240-260 yuan/mt. Non-registered brands such as KCC and TFM traded at premiums of 80-160 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the beginning of the month will start a new round of procurement cycles, and some downstream buyers and traders are expected to release restocking demand. The procurement sentiment recovered from the previous trading day, providing some support for spot premiums. Inventory wise, SMM data showed social inventory in Shanghai at 77,000 mt, up 7,500 mt WoW from last Thursday, mainly due to concentrated arrivals of a batch of non-registered copper. Social inventory in Jiangsu stood at 20,100 mt, down 1,100 mt WoW from last Thursday, reflecting that while local consumption is generally weak, some just-in-time procurement still exists. As lower-priced non-registered copper enters the market, spot supply pressure has increased somewhat, which may cap offers for registered standard-quality copper. Overall, with procurement demand supporting at the start of the month but Shanghai inventory significantly increasing and non-registered copper arrivals supplementing supply, spot premiums for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract are expected to hold steady tomorrow. The overall center is likely to consolidate around current levels, with limited upside room.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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