[SMM Precious Metals Express]

[SMM Express] UBS has adopted a more bearish outlook for palladium, lowering its price forecast to around US$1,100/oz as it expects the global market to shift into a supply surplus during 2026. The bank projects an oversupply of approximately 200,000 oz, citing rising recycled metal availability alongside weakening demand from the automotive and investment sectors. Although global mine production is expected to decline compared with 2025, UBS believes the increase in recycled palladium will more than offset lower primary supply. Softer consumption from the autocatalyst industry, which remains the largest source of palladium demand, is also expected to weigh on market fundamentals. The bank noted that China's record palladium imports during the first half of the year were largely driven by the establishment of a new trading exchange rather than stronger underlying industrial demand. As a result, the import surge is not viewed as a signal of improving consumption. Looking ahead, UBS expects the combination of surplus supply and subdued end-user demand to maintain downward pressure on palladium prices. Market participants are likely to monitor recycling flows, vehicle production trends and developments in the automotive sector for further indications of the metal's price direction.

[SMM Express] Platinum prices remained above the key US$1,600/oz level following a volatile trading session on Wednesday 29th July 2026, with the metal recovering from early weakness to trade around US$1,613/oz after briefly rallying to an intraday high near US$1,640/oz. Strong buying interest emerged once prices reclaimed the US$1,600 threshold, although renewed selling pressure near the US$1,620–1,640 resistance zone limited further upside. Technical indicators point to gradually improving short-term momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continued to strengthen, suggesting the recent recovery may extend in the near term. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained below the neutral 50 level, indicating bullish momentum has yet to fully develop despite improving market sentiment. Market participants are closely monitoring whether platinum can establish sustained trading above US$1,620/oz, which could provide the foundation for another attempt at recent highs. On the downside, the US$1,600/oz level has emerged as an important area of support, with additional support seen around US$1,590/oz. In the near term, platinum is expected to consolidate within its current trading range as investors assess technical signals alongside broader precious metals market conditions and underlying demand fundamentals.