SMM July 31 news:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2608 contract were quoted at premiums of 210–310 yuan/mt, averaging 260 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In the early session, the SHFE copper 2608 contract opened higher and then kept falling, with a slight rebound intraday. The opening price was 105,860 yuan/mt, quickly touching a high of 105,990 yuan/mt before declining to around 105,600 yuan/mt, followed by a slight rebound, trading mostly in the 105,630–105,820 yuan/mt range, and closing slightly lower at 105,660 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between next-month and current-month contracts was between 130 yuan/mt and 190 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract was between a loss of 830 yuan/mt and a loss of 740 yuan/mt.
On the day, the sales sentiment for Shanghai copper cathode was at 2.82, down 0.02 MoM, and the procurement sentiment was at 2.72, down 0.06 MoM. Historical data can be found in the database. At the beginning of the morning session, suppliers initially offered current-month invoice standard-quality copper at premiums of 300–320 yuan/mt and next-month invoice Tiefeng at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, then slightly lowered offers, quoting current-month invoice EXW standard-quality brands such as Jinguan, Jintun PC, and Jinxin at premiums of 250 yuan/mt, and next-month invoice Zhongtiaoshan, Tongguan, and Zijin at premiums of 250–260 yuan/mt. High-quality copper was scarce, with only some Jintun large plates and Guixi circulating, quoted at premiums of 300–320 yuan/mt for current-month invoices. Registered SX-EW copper BMK was offered at a premium of 160 yuan/mt for next-month invoices. Non-registered copper such as KCC was quoted at premiums of 70–90 yuan/mt for next-month invoices. In the second period, trading was thin on both sides, and suppliers further lowered offers, quoting next-month invoice Tiefeng, Zhongtiaoshan, Zijin, etc. at premiums of 200–210 yuan/mt.
Looking ahead to next week, with the start-of-month procurement cycle beginning, some downstream users and traders are expected to release restocking demand, providing support to spot premiums. After low-priced cargoes were gradually absorbed during the day, suppliers showed a clear willingness to hold prices firm, with next-month invoice standard-quality copper offers basically maintained at premiums of 200 yuan/mt and above, and limited willingness to continue large price cuts for shipments. However, copper prices remain high, and actual incremental downstream purchases need further observation, while arrivals of imported copper may also supplement spot supply. Overall, supported by early-month procurement demand and suppliers holding prices firm, spot prices against the SHFE 2608 copper contract are expected to stay at premiums next week, with the overall center likely to stop falling and rebound, while attention should be paid to import arrivals and their actual replenishment of market supply.
