[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 31, Nickel Prices Edged Up, and Japan Conducted an Exchange Rate Intervention by Buying Yen and Selling Dollars

Published: Jul 31, 2026 11:38

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SMM Nickel, July 31:

Macro and Market News:

(1) The Japanese government and the Bank of Japan conducted a currency intervention involving buying yen and selling US dollars, while the US monetary authorities also conducted “exchange rate checks” as a preliminary step to intervention.

(2) Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Thursday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index fell 0.1% MoM last month, dragged down by lower energy prices. The PCE inflation rate YoY fell to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in May, after hitting a three-year high.

Spot Market:

On July 31, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 132,600 yuan/mt, up 600 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Regarding spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,200 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -300 to 500 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract shot up in early trading then pulled back slightly, closing the morning session at 131,900 yuan/mt, up 0.49%.

The July FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and a weaker US dollar pushed most nonferrous metals higher; expectations of tighter quotas in Indonesia and sulfur cost support are solidifying the bottom for nickel prices. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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