Today, SMM's 10 o'clock price for Ag (T+D) on the gold exchange was 14,291 yuan/kg, with the premium range quoted at TD parity to +10 yuan/kg and an average of +5 yuan/kg.
Macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled marginally, but conditions for a trend reversal are not yet met, and precious metals remain in the phase of consolidating at lows. Yesterday, the US dollar index plunged 0.82%, falling below the 100 mark, mainly due to joint intervention by Japan and the US (buying yen and selling dollars) and intervention by South Korea's foreign exchange authorities selling dollars. Meanwhile, the PCE inflation data most watched by the US Fed cooled—June MoM turned negative, and core MoM was only 0.1%, below expectations. Oil prices pulled back slightly but remained high. Precious metals maintained consolidating operations and have not yet formed a trend reversal.
Spot market side, the supply-demand weakness pattern continued on the last day of the month. Smelters basically did not participate in quoting, suppliers had limited room for transactions, overall market trading momentum was insufficient, and quotes were on the high side. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly concentrated around TD parity to +10 yuan/kg, transactions were sluggish, and social inventories continued to accumulate. In July, due to maintenance at lead, zinc, and copper smelters, silver production experienced some decline. In Shenzhen, some national standard sources were concentrated around parity quotes; low-priced sources existed but did not significantly disrupt spot trade. Today, the market's premium/discount for the most-traded SHFE contract 2610 was a discount of 60-50 yuan/kg.
Overall, this week, the precious metals market saw intense bull-bear battles and moved sideways in a narrow range. The weak supply-demand momentum in the spot market continued. Going forward, attention should be paid to the progress of smelter maintenance next month, export performance, and the recovery of domestic trade orders.
