China Inventory Remains High, Zinc Price Rise Still Under Pressure [SMM Zinc Morning Comment]

Published: Jul 31, 2026 08:58
[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 24,800 yuan/mt, then dipped to a low of 24,800 yuan/mt. Subsequently, with increased long positions, SHFE zinc steadily climbed to hit a high of 24,935 yuan/mt. However, bears added positions, causing the price to pull back slightly but still trade above the daily average line. Then, amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc moved sideways in a narrow range. It finally closed up at 24,885 yuan/mt, a gain of 185 yuan/mt or 0.75%. Trading volume decreased to 54,696 lots, and open interest increased by 3,258 lots to 108,000 lots.

Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,582.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc moved sideways around the daily average line, then edged lower. During the European session, it dipped to $3,571.5/mt. Night session prices shot up to touch a high of $3,625.5/mt, then pulled back slightly towards the end, finally closing up at $3,609.5/mt, up $36.5/mt, a gain of 1.02%. Trading volume increased to 9,333 lots, and open interest decreased by 3,194 lots to 244,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day and 60-day moving averages providing support. The US PCE in June turned negative MoM, indicating a slight easing of inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, the US dollar index fell yesterday, lending support to zinc prices. On the fundamentals side, zinc inventory outside China continued to decline, and LME zinc found support and rose.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2609 contract opened at 24,800 yuan/mt. It dipped to the session low of 24,800 yuan/mt right after the open, then, as bulls added positions, SHFE zinc rose steadily to touch a high of 24,935 yuan/mt. However, bears added positions, pushing the price slightly lower, but it still stayed above the daily average line. Then, amid a tug-of-war between longs and shorts, SHFE zinc moved sideways in a narrow range. It finally closed up at 24,885 yuan/mt, up 185 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.75%. Trading volume decreased to 54,696 lots, and open interest increased by 3,258 lots to 108,000 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick, with the 10-day and 60-day moving averages providing support for the price. As of Thursday, social inventory in China saw a small destocking but remained high. SHFE zinc faced continuing upward pressure and continued to consolidate at highs.

Data source statement: All data other than publicly available information are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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