[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (July 24 – July 30), platinum and palladium prices moved in a consolidation pattern, ending the week lower overall. At the start of the week, US-Iran tensions briefly eased as both sides halted strikes against each other since last Friday, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumed, causing geopolitical risk premiums to fade rapidly. Oil prices plunged 8% in a single day. Coupled with rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, platinum and palladium futures came under heavy pressure and tumbled, hitting intraweek lows on July 24. On July 27, driven by a technical rebound from oversold conditions, safe-haven buying amid escalating global trade frictions, and easing inflation concerns as oil prices fell, platinum and palladium rebounded strongly and regained some lost ground. Late in the week, the Fed’s July FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged but internal divisions intensified (9:3 vote, with three voters advocating a rate hike), sending a more hawkish signal than expected. This, combined with renewed escalation in US-Iran tensions (Iran seizing an oil tanker, Houthi blockade of the Red Sea) which boosted oil prices and inflation expectations, caused platinum and palladium to come under renewed pressure and pull back. The most-traded platinum contract on the GFEX hit a weekly high of 406.85 yuan/g and a low of 389.70 yuan/g, closing at 391.65 yuan/g on July 30; the most-traded palladium contract reached a high of 307.70 yuan/g and a low of 291.95 yuan/g, closing at 297.05 yuan/g on July 30.
In the spot market, amid the volatile futures trading during the week, spot premiums for platinum and palladium remained relatively stable overall. Mainstream platinum quotations were at discounts of 2-3 yuan/g against the most-traded contract, while palladium discounts were in the range of 1.5-3 yuan/g. Suppliers, with limited willingness to sell as delivery approached, kept quotes relatively firm. Some traders took on warehouse warrants based on opportunities in the GFEX price spread between futures contracts. Downstream demand remained sluggish, with automotive catalysts and industrial consumption generally weak, while end-users mainly restocked on a need basis. Overall, the spot market for platinum and palladium was mediocre on both the supply and demand sides during the week.
Looking ahead, platinum and palladium prices are currently in a consolidation range shaped by repeated tug-of-war between macro and geopolitical factors, with both upward catalysts and downward constraints in the near term. After deep pullbacks, precious metals have partially priced in the US Fed’s hawkish expectations. The rate-hike trade is already crowded, so the room for further downward valuation revisions is expected to be limited. In addition, with the Fed decision now behind us, sentiment may repair in the short term. However, excessive optimism about upside room is unwarranted. The main constraint is that expectations for rate hikes this year have not materially reversed, and internal Fed divisions have intensified while the hawkish tone remains intact. The subsequent price direction will still depend on further developments in the US-Iran situation, US inflation data for August, and the Fed’s policy path.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Comment]
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories both showed inventory buildup this week. Platinum inventory shifted from continuous destocking to a slight increase, with the destocking trend slowing down temporarily. The key reason was that industrial buying turned cautious and the pace of entering the market slowed amid falling prices. Palladium inventory rose more notably, with US warehouse buffer stocks accumulating further; current inventory remains near a one-year high. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium ETF holdings continued to see modest net inflows, with platinum ETF inflows being relatively more significant, providing some support to price bottoms. Overall spot supply remained ample, and London platinum and palladium lease rates continued to decline and stayed at low levels.
On the import side, platinum imports rose again YoY in June; palladium imports also edged up, with the overall average significantly higher than in 2023-2025. Since early 2026, domestic platinum and palladium imports have grown rapidly, leading to relatively ample supply. Additionally, due to export restrictions on platinum and palladium, the domestic surplus is difficult to absorb through exports.
[Platinum Group Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride prices generally retreated after rapid rises, edging lower from highs. On Monday, after hitting bottom briefly last Friday, prices rebounded somewhat, then pulled back slightly for two consecutive days, stabilizing on Thursday.
Chloroplatinic acid opened this week at 164 yuan/g (up 4 yuan from last Friday's close), then eased to 162 yuan/g and held steady for two days. Over the week, it gained 2 yuan/g from last Friday, up 1.25%. The July range was 160-169 yuan/g, with a monthly average around 164.95 yuan/g. Palladium chloride opened the week at 189 yuan/g, rebounding 5 yuan from last Friday, then retreated to 187 yuan/g and stabilized through Thursday. Over the week, it gained 3 yuan/g from last Friday, up 1.63%. The July range was 181.5-197 yuan/g, with a monthly average around 189.2 yuan/g.
In terms of actual shipments, this week continued last week's shipment pace, with overall trading remaining sluggish. Among sectors, automotive, pharmaceutical, and petrochemical industries were affected by high temperatures, and concentrated maintenance activities weighed on spot transactions. In addition, Q2 and Q3 are the small peak delivery season for hydrogen production equipment, providing some support for platinum-based catalyst demand. As a result, deliveries of platinum group compounds were somewhat stronger than palladium-based ones overall.
