[SMM Analysis] Spot lithium carbonate prices remain flat, while downstream continues to buy the dip as needed.

The SMM spot battery-grade lithium carbonate price held steady from the previous working day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened flat at 148,000 yuan/mt today, then drifted lower. During morning trading, it moved sideways below the average price line; although there was a brief rebound, it failed to hold above the line. Around midday, bears persistently applied pressure, driving the price down to around 143,000 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it consolidated on a weak note at low levels. During this period, bulls attempted to stage a counterattack but were rejected by bears, causing another pullback. In late trading, bears exerted intensified pressure, accelerating the decline to hit a new intraday low of 140,600 yuan/mt. It ultimately closed down 3.75% at 141,100 yuan/mt, with open interest decreasing by 4,793 contracts.

In the spot market, downstream players continued to buy the dip as needed. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed strong sentiment in holding spot order quotes firm. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively active. This week, affected by maintenance and production halts at spodumene and lepidolite-based lithium chemical plants, China’s lithium carbonate production declined sharply. From the perspective of market transactions and inventory, upstream lithium chemical plants maintained their strategy of holding back from selling spot orders, with willingness to sell remaining persistently low. Coupled with multiple enterprises undergoing maintenance, current supply was primarily based on long-term contract guarantees and a "long-term contract + growth" delivery model. Downstream material plants continued their procurement pace of purchasing as needed. Coinciding with month-end and a slight WoW uptick in the price center, procurement behavior remained generally steady, with limited mass stockpiling activities. Traders, affected by the dual factors of upstream supply contraction, relatively limited spot order circulation, and downstream just-in-time procurement, remained in a destocking state.