7.29 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market Hot Topics:
Nickel Industries announced that its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt (ENC) high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) project at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) successfully produced its first mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) in July 2026, marking a significant step into the EV battery materials supply chain. The ENC project is a next-generation HPAL facility capable of producing MHP, nickel sulphate, cobalt sulphate, and nickel cathode. The first MHP was produced using limonite ore feed from the company's Hengjaya mine, which delivers ore slurry to ENC via a 22-km slurry pipeline, achieving integrated supply from mine to metal product and securing long-term, stable raw material sources. The company expects to produce its first nickel cathode in August 2026, further enhancing its production capacity for high-value-added battery materials.
Macro:
(1) The US Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, with Fed Chairman Warsh holding a press conference as usual at 2:30 a.m., in what industry insiders call the most unpredictable Fed decision.
(2) Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated: "We have never requested negotiations with the US, nor have we made any ceasefire proposal to the US." He added that Tehran proposed to Oman that Iran manage one-way shipping through the Strait of Hormuz on its side, while Oman manages the other side.
Spot Market:
On July 29, the SMM #1 refined nickel average price was 131,500 yuan/mt, down 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 1,250 yuan/mt, unchanged from the prior trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 500 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged in the night session, then gradually rebounded during morning trading to close at 131,660 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.08%.
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2609) is expected to trade in a range of 128,000-135,000 yuan/mt in the short term.
Nickel Sulphate
On July 29, SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price was steady.
Cost side, affected by Middle East peace talks, nickel prices drifted lower today, but the spot cost of nickel sulphate production recently still rebounded somewhat. Supply side, the tight supply of intermediate products has not changed, with MHP payables and auxiliary materials like sulphuric acid prices still high. Some salt plants hold expectations for production cuts, and faced with rebounding nickel prices, some enterprises have intentions to hold prices firm. Demand side, as nickel prices dropped sharply MoM and some downstream enterprises accumulated inventory, downstream restocking sentiment was weak, leading to relatively low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Today, the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor was 1.8, downstream precursor plants' purchasing sentiment factor was 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor was 2.5 (historical data can be found in the database).
Looking ahead, we are at the month-end purchasing period; the market is expected to gradually recover, and nickel sulphate prices may rebound.
NPI
On July 29, the SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor was 1.98, flat MoM. The upstream high-grade NPI sentiment factor was 2, flat MoM, and the downstream high-grade NPI sentiment factor was 1.95, flat MoM. Today, the high-grade NPI spot market continued its tug-of-war. Firm price orders remained scarce, and transactions generally took the form of a premiums negotiation model. The premiums for mainstream sources were lowered somewhat from the previous period, but upstream and downstream price levels remained difficult to match. Demand side, bearish sentiment persisted, and the market remained cautious about August prices. Some buyers continued to maintain low purchase intentions, choosing to defer purchases. High stainless steel inventories continued to weigh on the industry chain, suppressing downstream enthusiasm for proactive stockpiling. The near-term market lacked clear signals, upstream and downstream expectations remained divergent, and high-grade NPI moved sideways.
Stainless Steel
According to SMM on July 29, SS futures showed an overall trend of a halt in decline and a recovery. Supported by a weaker US dollar index and a broad rally in non-ferrous metals futures, SS futures embarked on a recovery too. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,515 yuan/mt. In the spot market, stainless steel spot offers fell yesterday afternoon, weighed by weak futures. Today, even though SS futures' recovery improved spot market inquiry activity, traders’ strong willingness to sell during the off-season limited the recovery in spot offers.
The Most-traded SS Futures Contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2609 was quoted at 14,540 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 380-830 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils was flat. For cold-rolled uncut edge 304/2B coils, the average price fell 25 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 25 yuan/mt in Foshan. The price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi was flat. For hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, offers in Wuxi were flat. Cold-rolled 430/2B coils were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan.
This week, macro and industry tailwinds supported nickel and stainless steel futures, pushing them to consolidate on a strong note. Macro side, easing US inflation expectations combined with ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions to sway market risk sentiment. Industry side, expectations that Indonesia’s RKAB supplemental nickel ore quotas would see limited growth continued to brew, effectively stabilizing the bottom of nickel prices. This pushed SHFE nickel to consolidate on a strong note, with SS futures following nickel prices and holding up well. Spot and inventory side, this week SS futures consolidated on a strong note, restoring market confidence and driving a concentrated release of spot trading early in the week. Relatively stable just-in-time procurement of low-price goods ensured basic transaction resilience. However, the market remained in the traditional consumption off-season, with overall limited effective end-use demand. Insufficient support from industry just-in-time demand, combined with weak market acceptance of high-price materials, led to a lack of momentum for spot price increases. Price gains significantly lagged behind futures, and throughout the week, spot prices fluctuated within a range with limited changes. Inventory side, the logic weakened notably as the impact of typhoon weather that previously constrained arrivals faded. Previously held-up off-market goods arrived at ports and entered warehouses in concentration. Coupled with continuous normal distribution by steel mills and ample market supply, against the backdrop of end-use demand struggling to effectively digest incremental goods, stainless steel social inventory experienced a slight buildup this week, with off-season inventory pressure marginally emerging. Cost and profit side, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in raw materials intensified this week, while the price spread between finished products and raw materials was basically stable, and overall smelting profits of steel mills held steady. Throughout the week, stainless steel mills maintained a desire to push for lower raw material prices, adopted a cautious stance on procurement, and overall raw material transactions in the market were weak. Under the pressure of continued price pushes by steel mills and sluggish just-in-time procurement, NPI prices remained stable without significant fluctuations. Stainless steel scrap edged higher following the strong trend of finished product futures. This week, the smelting profit margin of stainless steel mills basically remained stable, with no significant change in the industry's profitability. Overall, this week, the stainless steel market exhibited a game-like pattern where macro factors underpinned futures, the off-season constrained spot, inventory saw some buildup, and profits operated steadily. Macro sentiment and expectations of nickel supply tightening supported futures to consolidate on a strong note, with warming futures restoring market trading. However, weak off-season just-in-time demand and insufficient acceptance of high prices consistently suppressed the upside room for spot. Improved weather brought concentrated arrivals of goods, combined with normal distribution by steel mills, pushing inventories to accumulate slightly. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts in raw materials was balanced, with stable price spreads between finished products and raw materials, keeping steel mill profits steady. In the short term, the market will continue a structural trend of strong futures and mild spot fluctuations. Going forward, key focuses will include changes in macro sentiment, SHFE nickel futures trends, the release of off-season just-in-time demand downstream, the pace of inventory buildup, and the tug-of-war in raw material procurement.
Nickel ore:
Philippine market:
On July 29, Philippine nickel ore prices showed an overall upward trend, with quotes for most major export routes being raised compared to the previous day. Among them, Surigao ore prices continued to strengthen, with the Surigao to Lianyungang price rising by $0.5/wmt to $15/wmt from July 28, an increase of 3.4%; similarly, the Surigao to Ningde price rose by $0.5/wmt to $14/wmt, an increase of 3.7%. Additionally, the shipping rate from Surigao to IWIP also increased $0.5/wmt, from yesterday's $12.5/wmt to $13/wmt. Meanwhile, ore prices from Zambales also rose. The Zambales to Lianyungang rate increased $0.25/wmt to $13/wmt, up 2.0%; the Zambales to Ningde rate increased $0.5/wmt to $13/wmt, up 4.0%. Overall, the Philippine nickel ore market was firm on July 29, with prices from both major producing areas, Surigao and Zambales, being raised, with a more notable increase in Surigao ore. The higher prices mainly reflected improving procurement demand and increased buyer interest in mid-to-high-grade nickel ore resources, driving quotations on key shipping routes higher.
Indonesia Market:
Pricing: With the implementation of Indonesia's HMA and HPM for the second half of July effective July 15, domestic nickel ore prices moved lower in tandem. Currently, Ni 1.2% limonite ore CIF is around $29/wmt, and Ni 1.3% is around $31/wmt; Ni 1.4%, 1.5% and 1.6% saprolite ore CIF are around $54.9, $61.2 and $66.1/wmt, respectively. Affected by the HPM reduction, transaction prices pulled back about $0.5/wmt WoW, and are now largely based on the new HPM. Against a backdrop of ample supply and high smelter inventories, ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term.
Weather-wise, the week of July 20-26 saw intermittent light to moderate rain in key mining areas such as Morowali, Kolaka, Konawe and Weda, with localized thunderstorms, but the overall rainfall was scattered and did not significantly affect mine production, transportation or port shipments.
On the supply-demand and market sentiment front, Indonesia's domestic nickel ore market maintained a loose supply pattern. RKEF and HPAL smelter inventories can support around 2-3 months of production, downstream procurement remains hand-to-mouth, and there is no significant restocking interest for now. Mine production and shipments are normal, saprolite ore supply is ample, and the commissioning of new HPAL projects has further eased supply concerns. Limonite ore transaction prices were at about $33-35/wmt, small mines held back from selling, and actual transactions were still concentrated among large mines. Some smelters have raised procurement grades to Ni 1.45%-1.50%, further suppressing demand for low-grade ore. Most mines still hope that transaction prices are $3–5/wmt higher than HPM, with buyers and sellers in constant negotiation, leading to thin market trading.
On the policy front, the market continues to monitor the approval of RKAB supplementary quotas and the progress of export policies. Indonesia plans to fully implement a single export management system for strategic minerals on September 1, 2026. Currently, the nickel industry chain is not yet included within the regulatory scope, and the short-term impact is limited. Furthermore, pursuant to Government Regulation No. 21 of 2026, Indonesia has exempted China, the US, Australia, and Canada from stricter DHE SDA foreign exchange retention requirements, which helps reduce capital costs for export enterprises but is not expected to have a significant impact on the supply and demand of nickel ore or prices.
Market outlook, the supply-demand pattern of the Indonesian nickel ore market is expected to remain stable in the coming week, with ample supply and procurement still dominated by rigid demand, and prices are expected to remain stable. As the deadline for the approval of RKAB supplementary quotas approaches, the market will continue to monitor the impact of the approval results on subsequent supply and price trends.
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![[SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] July 30: Downstream purchasing sentiment weak, nickel sulphate prices stable.](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/Btmsv20251217171733.jpg)
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