EVA Prices to Continue Slight Uptrend, Cell Prices Remain Divergent [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM July 30 News:

Solar Cell

Price

The Topcon solar cell market continued its size-based differentiation pattern, with price trends for different specifications diverging further. The 183 size, supported by tight supply and related policy factors, continued to rise, with deals already concluded at 0.275 Yuan/W, pushing the transaction range up to 0.268-0.273 Yuan/W; for 210R, low-priced supply increased, with actual orders at 0.255 Yuan/W emerging gradually, pulling the transaction range down to 0.257-0.262 Yuan/W; for 210N, the transaction center shifted lower, with mainstream deals moving from 0.265 Yuan/W to 0.26 Yuan/W, while only a few producers held their original quotes, adjusting the price index range to 0.259-0.264 Yuan/W. Overall, apart from 183 strengthening due to tight spot supply, the 210 series sizes faced relatively high inventory pressure, with market bargaining room continuing to widen and the futures divergence trend persisting.

Production

In July, actual industry output exceeded June, with total supply remaining at a relatively high level. Entering the August production schedule planning phase, the overall industry production schedule was slightly revised down from July, mainly due to some producers implementing production cut plans. Subsequent tracking is needed on the implementation of these cut plans to observe the extent of supply contraction.

Inventory

This week, total industry inventory rose WoW, with stocking pressure intensifying for most sizes, continuing to suppress the price rebound potential for 210R and 210N. Only 183 inventories remained low, providing market support, while the industry's structural inventory divergence remained pronounced.

Module

Price

This week, domestic module prices were mainly stable, with some local easing. As domestic demand weakened again, module companies, facing performance losses, prioritized holding prices firm, and the intensity of the rush to sell diminished. However, inevitably, low-efficiency modules continued to be sold at lower prices, dealing a blow to market confidence in holding prices firm. On the centralized side, domestic tender volumes fell sharply from mid-July, down about 80% from the beginning of the month. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules were quoted at 0.714 Yuan/W, 0.721 Yuan/W, and 0.728 Yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183, 210N, and 210R modules were quoted at 0.708 Yuan/W, 0.718 Yuan/W, and 0.711 Yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Recently, domestic module factory operating rates remained largely stable. August module production schedules are expected to increase slightly, but the incremental growth is limited, estimated at 1-2 GW.

Inventory

Module inventory in China edged up this week, with limited new orders, as current inventory levels were sustained primarily by existing order deliveries.

PV Film

Pricing:

EVA/POE PV-Grade Resin:

The mainstream transaction range for domestic spot PV-grade EVA resin was 10,200-10,300 yuan/mt, with prices continuing their overall upward trend. The downstream film sector is currently in a new round of monthly price negotiations. On the resin side, no further price increases were attempted in the short term, with mainstream trader spot quotes holding at 10,500 yuan/mt. On the supply side, although some petrochemical units recently switched to producing PV-grade material, the increase in circulating spot supply remained limited, making it difficult to materially ease the tight supply situation in the short term. Overall, PV-grade EVA prices are expected to continue their slight uptrend.

PV Film:

Current prices for 420g/m² clear EVA film were 5.04-5.1 yuan/m², and 5.13-5.19 yuan/m² for 380g/m² EPE film. A new round of monthly film price negotiations is underway. The recent synchronous rise in EVA and POE resin prices supported film manufacturers' case for price increases. However, downstream module makers, under profit margin pressure, found it difficult to accept significant price hikes, leading to continued price negotiations between the two sides. Overall, a slight upward adjustment in this round of film pricing is expected.

Production

PV-grade EVA production edged up this week as some units switched to producing PV-grade material. The July production schedule for film manufacturers showed a 6%-7% MoM increase over June.

Inventory

Inventory at petrochemical plants remained within a reasonable, lower-end range, with output prioritized for term contracts, leaving limited circulating spot supply. Inventory pressure at film manufacturers remained generally manageable.

PV Glass:

Pricing

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: Quotes for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass held steady at 15.2-16 yuan/m².

3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: Quotes for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass held steady at 16.2-17 yuan/m².

2mm Single-Layer Coating: Quotes for 2mm single-layer coated PV glass held steady at 8.5-9.5 yuan/m². Prices were stable this week, but glass enterprises are about to raise their quotes as they enter the month-end settlement period. The current assessment is for an increase of approximately 1-2 yuan/m².

2mm Double-Layer Coating: Quotes for 2mm double-layer coated PV glass held steady at 9.5-10.5 yuan/m².

Production

There were no new cold repairs or shutdowns of furnaces in China this week. Domestic supply decreased significantly due to the impact of previously idled furnaces, and the supply-demand relationship will improve in August.

Inventory

China's glass inventory levels further declined, and the industry's days of inventories are expected to drop to within 40 days.