Bears reduced positions more, lifting the center of SHFE lead [Lead Futures Brief Comment]

SMM July 29: Today, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,680 yuan/mt. In the morning, SHFE lead maintained consolidation. In the afternoon, bears reduced positions, pushing SHFE lead gradually higher, hitting an intraday high of 15,835 yuan/mt, but it came under pressure near the 20-day moving average and pulled back, finally closing at 15,810 yuan/mt, up 0.86%. The open interest of the most-traded SHFE lead contract dropped to 84,364 lots, down 13,425 lots from the previous trading day, refreshing a new low in nearly half a month. Meanwhile, the open interest of the forward SHFE lead 2610 contract increased by 6,688 lots to 40,420 lots.

It is worth noting that the open interest of the most-traded 2609 contract continued to decline while that of the 2610 contract increased simultaneously, indicating an accelerated pace of capital shifting and contract rollover. Today's rebound in SHFE lead was mainly driven by bear position reduction, with limited willingness to add long positions. Against the backdrop of the off-season for consumption and no notable improvement in supply pressure, SHFE lead is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

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