SMM July 29:
On July 29, mainstream spot rare earth prices in China extended their stay in the doldrums, while the A-share rare earth permanent magnet concept sector drifted higher, showing a pronounced divergence between the spot market and the secondary market. The strength of rare earth permanent magnet concept stocks was underpinned by multiple factors: The production costs of rare earth permanent magnet enterprises are directly related to spot rare earth prices. The phased decline in raw material prices was expected to ease cost pressure on midstream magnetic material enterprises; the rare earth permanent magnet sector underwent continuous corrections in the prior period, with valuations pulling back to relatively low levels, attracting some capital to enter and position; meanwhile, the market remained bullish on sectors such as humanoid robots, NEVs, and industrial motors, expecting these areas to drive medium- and long-term demand growth for high-performance NdFeB, with capital trading around downstream growth expectations. As of the close on July 29, the rare earth permanent magnet concept rose 1.25%. In terms of individual stocks: Jintian Shares and Jiaozuo Wanfang gained over 4%, while Lizhong Group, Zhenghai Magnetic Material, Sanchuan Wisdom, and Xiangdian Shares led the gains.
Rare Earth Prices Overall in the Doldrums; Inquiries for Pr-Nd Oxide Recover
Spot market: On July 29, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide extended the decline from the previous trading day to fall a further 0.66%. The average prices of dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were unchanged from the previous trading day.
Currently, overall prices in the rare earth market remained sluggish. By product, in the Pr-Nd market, Pr-Nd oxide futures prices recovered, and inquiry activity in the market gradually increased, prompting spot suppliers to raise their quotes. However, downstream buyers had low psychological price levels, limiting actual upside room for spot cargo, with prices still weak compared to yesterday morning. In the metal market, influenced by the recovery in oxide prices and reduced availability of low-priced goods, suppliers slightly raised their quotes; but downstream magnetic material enterprises only maintained just-in-time restocking and were reluctant to accept high-priced raw materials, leaving metal prices still in the doldrums compared to yesterday morning.
The medium-heavy rare earth products showed divergent trends: overall inquiry volume saw no significant increase, with suppliers of dysprosium and terbium products maintaining relatively stable quotes and the market generally steady; inquiries for gadolinium products were sluggish, with prices continuing to decline; in the holmium oxide market, inquiries increased, and alongside tighter low-priced supply, suppliers raised their quotes. However, holmium iron inquiries did not improve simultaneously, as magnetic material enterprises resisted high-priced goods, keeping holmium iron quotes unchanged. In the short term, the market is characterized by intense bargaining between sellers and buyers. Before any notable improvement in the supply-demand relationship, Pr-Nd prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range.
Institutional Voices
Soochow Securities stated in a report dated July 29: Tungsten and rare earths are subject to mining quota management. Since 2025, both have faced quota tightening, intensifying supply-side constraints. For tungsten mines, the Ministry of Natural Resources lowered the first batch of total tungsten mining indicators for 2025 and strictly controlled production exceeding or without quotas, keeping the raw material circulation persistently tight. Rare earths are jointly regulated under a total volume control mechanism by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). In recent years, growth in total rare earth mining quotas has been highly restrained, with quotas for medium-heavy rare earths showing near-zero growth. Rare earths: Material system upgrades for high-capacity MLCCs are expected to boost demand for medium-heavy rare earths. Heavily doping the ceramic material of MLCC shells with rare earth oxides such as dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide can effectively address inherent defects like poor temperature stability, insufficient insulation resistance, susceptibility to degradation under reducing atmospheres, and abnormal grain growth, meeting the performance requirements of high-capacity MLCCs. We estimate that (1) the unit consumption of medium-heavy rare earth oxides per 100 million MLCCs is about 15 kg; (2) from 2025 to 2030, AI servers and automotive electronics are expected to boost global MLCC demand from 663.1 billion units to 1,362.9 billion units; (3) corresponding demand for dysprosium oxide and yttrium oxide will rise from 101 mt to 207 mt, a CAGR of 15.5%, with a net increase of 106 mt. As China’s rare earth supply landscape trends toward rigid total volume constraints, continuous structural optimization, and intensifying disruption outside China, the price center for medium-heavy rare earths is expected to rise.
A report published by Guojin Securities on July 26 showed: Pr-Nd oxide prices fell MoM. Dysprosium oxide prices are expected to benefit from the boost by MLCCs, with a notable trend of rebounding from the bottom. Coupled with expectations of more relaxed exports going forward, they are more bullish on subsequent demand. The export rush outside China combined with sustained supply-side reform progress suggests a potential supply-demand resonance in rare earths.
Xiangcai Securities noted in a report that recently, some raw ore separation enterprises have suspended operations due to factors such as group integration, while scrap recyclers that previously suspended or cut production have not yet resumed, keeping output persistently low. Production growth is limited and costs remain high and firm, leading to overall tightness in the oxide supply side. Metal is relatively ample, but producers are firm in their quotations and shipments, with little pressure to sell. On the demand side, expectations are improving, with Q3 demand recovery expectations gradually strengthening. Production at most large magnetic material enterprises remains stable, supported by long-term contract orders, and new export orders are expected to improve. Overall, the supply side remains tight, expectations for market growth are relatively low, downstream demand is moderate, and the overall trend is improving. The market is following a steady upward path, and rare earth prices are expected to be raised moderately going forward.
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