Silicon Metal Market Center Stagnant and Weak, Polysilicon Mainly Takes Wait-and-See Approach toward Future Market [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM News on July 29:

Silicon coal

prices:

This week, silicon coal market prices held steady. Transaction prices were about 1,300-1,400 yuan/mt for Xinjiang caking silicon coal; 1,140 yuan/mt for Gansu silicon granular coal; and 1,060 yuan/mt for silicon mixed coal. Silicon granular coal was 1,340 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia; and Xinjiang non-caking silicon coal was 855 yuan/mt.

Supply:

The market remained divergent. Some coal-washing plants continued to follow order rhythms and produce based on sales, with no inventory pressure, while some coal-washing plants under inventory pressure mainly focused on destocking.

Demand:

Production resumptions at silicon plants in southwest China brought a slight increase in rigid demand, but downstream enterprises strictly controlled costs and continued to push for lower prices, with procurement maintaining monthly rigid-demand follow-up.

Silicon metal

prices:

Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was around 9,000-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200-9,300 yuan/mt. The most-traded contract in the futures market fell under pressure yesterday. With weak silicon metal fundamentals and continued short-term pressure on the supply side, market sentiment was relatively negative, and prices consolidated on a subdued note within a narrow range.

Production:

In mid-to-late month, a few silicon enterprises in some regions saw rotating maintenance due to deteriorating furnace conditions and a sluggish market, with limited impact on overall supply reduction. National silicon metal production in July increased MoM.

Inventory:

SMM statistics showed that as of July 23, total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 537,000 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and other areas). Cargo pick-up at warehouses in some regions continued, and physical warehouse inventory decreased WoW. In-factory inventory showed a continued build.

Prices

DMC: the most-traded transaction price was 11,800-12,000 yuan/mt, with an average of about 11,900 yuan/mt. Currently, with most monomer enterprises having received some pre-sale orders at the earlier low market price levels, some monomer enterprises have suspended quotations under this support and will resume after the industry conference in August.

D4: yesterday’s quotations were 12,300-12,800 yuan/mt, with an average of about 12,550 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: yesterday’s quotations were 12,200-12,500 yuan/mt, with an average of about 12,350 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: yesterday’s quotations were 12,200-12,500 yuan/mt, with an average of about 12,350 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: yesterday’s quotations were 13,900-14,500 yuan/mt, with an average of about 14,200 yuan/mt.

Production:

Most monomer facilities that had previously been shut down for maintenance resumed production one after another recently, lifting overall industry operating rates and also driving weekly supply to rise.

Inventory:

Recently, stimulated by low market prices, midstream and downstream enterprises made concentrated purchases, easing inventory pressure for some monomer enterprises and thereby driving overall upstream inventory to decline WoW.

Polysilicon

Prices:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 30.8-33 yuan/kg. Order signing in the market remained relatively scarce, though some forward-position traders engaged in a degree of stockpiling earlier. With the convening of the meeting, some enterprises held strong expectations for H2 policies, believing a series of related measures will follow, leading to improved market sentiment.

Production

China's production continued to rise in July, mainly due to ongoing capacity ramp-up in regions such as Sichuan and Yunnan. An upward trend is also expected in August.

Inventory:

July saw an overall trend of slight destocking, driven by downstream order signing (mainly in granular polysilicon and some top-tier players), while forward-position traders and general traders drew down a certain amount of inventory.

Wafer

Prices

In the market, 18X wafers were priced at 0.8-0.824 yuan/piece, 210RN wafers at 0.896-0.926 yuan/piece, and 210N wafers at 1.1-1.128 yuan/piece. Prices for 210R wafers remain slightly soft, while low-end quotes for other wafer dimensions are relatively firm. Going forward, there is limited room for another substantial price drop in the wafer market.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey, August's overall trend points toward production cuts, though the reduction will be limited. Recently, with wafer prices falling below cash cost, top-tier players facing excessive inventory pressure have chosen to cut production in response. Additionally, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing have been adjusted.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises are showing a divergent trend in inventory buildup. Top-tier players' inventories have exceeded reasonable ranges. Demand for bonded zone inventory orders to India is marginally weakening, while several African nations have emerged as top export destinations.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Prices

Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 40,000-46,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 21,000-24,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 14,000-18,000 yuan/mt, while imported high-purity quartz sand is priced at 50,000-53,500 yuan/mt. 33-inch quartz crucibles are priced at 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and 36-inch crucibles at 6,500-6,800 yuan/piece. Recently, overall quartz sand and crucible prices have remained basically stable, with a marked improvement in the domestic price involution situation.

Production

In July, domestic planned production of high-purity quartz sand increased by about 5% MoM. With domestic wafer production slightly down MoM in July, order demand for crucibles improved somewhat after their prices stopped falling and stabilized. High-purity quartz sand enterprises are formulating production plans to match crucible demand, and recently, demand for photovoltaic high-purity quartz sand used in semiconductors has begun to rise in volume.

Inventory

Inventory of imported sand continued to increase in July. In Q3 2026, wafer enterprises are reasonably purchasing crucibles based on planned production, while overall quartz sand inventory levels continued to rise.