CME Data Shows 84.5% Chance of No Rate Hike in July, Warsh's Credibility Boosted Ahead of Key Decision

Published: Jul 28, 2026 22:58

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CME data shows that the probability of keeping rates unchanged in July has risen to 84.5% (hike 15.5%), and the probability of a 25bp rate hike in September is 55.1%. Warsh's "hawkish credibility" has shifted from being questioned to being trusted by the market. Tomorrow morning's rate decision at 2:00 a.m. + Warsh's press conference at 2:30 a.m. will be key.

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