Global primary copper supply is projected to face a 25% deficit by 2035 under current policy settings despite record-high prices, as new project development fails to keep pace with demand, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA highlighted declining ore grades as a core structural headwind, noting that average copper ore grades worldwide have dropped by 40% since 1991. This depletion has significantly increased project complexity and capital expenditure. Capital intensity for brownfield expansions has escalated by 65% since 2020, approaching levels historically associated with new greenfield developments. Concurrently, greenfield discoveries have slowed dramatically, with only 5% of all copper deposits identified over the past 35 years discovered within the last decade.
In the near term, project delays, cost overruns, and mine disruptions continue to tighten the copper concentrate market. Furthermore, limited availability of sulfuric acid has emerged as a key operational risk for solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) cathode production, compounding immediate supply constraints across global operations.
