Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Platinum Prices Consolidate, Spot Market Trading Normal [SMM Daily Review]

Platinum futures climbed above USD 1,870/oz on August 21, reaching an 11-week high as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals supported prices. The US dollar came under pressure amid concerns over the US fiscal outlook and investor scepticism about the Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback programme. Lower yields earlier in the week also supported demand for non-yielding assets, while expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged in September provided additional support to precious metals. Platinum also continued to benefit from a tight global supply-demand balance, with persistent market deficits and low inventories limiting available metal. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elevated oil prices added to inflation and economic uncertainty, supporting safe-haven and hedging demand. The combination of constrained physical supply and supportive macroeconomic conditions continues to underpin the platinum market, although movements in the US dollar, Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations remain key factors for prices in the near term.

[SMM Flash] Higher platinum group metals (PGM) prices are expected to lift African Rainbow Minerals’ (ARM) full-year headline earnings, despite weaker iron ore prices and the impact of a stronger South African rand. ARM expects headline earnings for the year ended June 2026 to rise 12%–22% to R3.02 billion–R3.29 billion, from R2.7 billion a year earlier. The improvement was mainly driven by higher PGM prices, which more than offset pressure from the iron ore business. Headline earnings per share are expected to increase to 1,544–1,682 cents, compared with 1,379 cents previously. ARM is scheduled to release its full-year results on September 4. The stronger PGM environment comes as ARM expands its exposure to platinum production. The company approved a R15.2 billion investment in the Bokoni platinum project in Limpopo, including the refurbishment of a 60,000-tonne-per-month concentrator and construction of a new 120,000-tonne-per-month facility. First production is targeted for the first half of FY2028, with steady-state PGM output expected at 350,000–400,000 oz/year from 2032.

[SMMFlash] Palladium futures rose to around USD 1,350/oz on August 21, extending gains to a one-week high as a weaker US dollar and renewed demand for precious metals supported prices. The US dollar weakened after the US Treasury unexpectedly increased long-dated debt buybacks, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating that purchases could exceed USD 4 billion per issue. Lower yield pressures initially supported non-yielding precious metals, while broader gains across the precious-metals complex, with gold on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, provided additional support. However, rising Treasury yields and higher energy prices could limit further gains by sustaining inflation concerns and expectations for tighter monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran also supported safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, supply-side concerns remained supportive, with lower Russian palladium output and reduced refined production linked to processing disruptions in South Africa adding to the market's underlying tightness.