US-Iran tensions ease, copper prices move sideways; end-user procurement recovers with low inventory support [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Monday, July 27, 2026
Futures: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,638.5/mt, consolidated at lows in early trading, then its center rose to touch a high of $13,681.5/mt. Thereafter, the center shifted lower, dipping to $13,605.5/mt near the close, and finally settled at $13,611.5/mt, up 0.34%. Trading volume reached 12,600 lots, and open interest stood at 248,000 lots, up 728 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls adding positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 104,600 yuan/mt, dipped to 104,540 yuan/mt right after opening, then its center rose to touch a high of 104,310 yuan/mt, before shifting lower to close at 104,630 yuan/mt, down 0.1%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, and open interest stood at 207,000 lots, down 34.81 million lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bulls reducing positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) According to a report on the website, after the discovery of two new porphyry systems, Canadian miner Lundin Gold is advancing the first resource estimate for the Sandia copper-gold discovery at its Fruta del Norte project in Ecuador, further indicating that the mine is developing into a district-scale mineral cluster. The discoveries at Sandia Northeast and Sandia Southeast have increased the number of porphyry bodies identified at Fruta del Norte from five to seven. The company now aims to release the initial Sandia resource estimate in early 2027, with the deposit continuing to expand on the basis of 1.6 km x 0.7 km.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On the morning of July 24, the SHFE copper 2608 contract consolidated sideways, with its overall center edging slightly higher before pulling back. The opening price was 104,700 yuan/mt, prices consolidated higher after opening, hitting a high of 105,010 yuan/mt, then consolidated lower to close at 104,890 yuan/mt. The backwardation between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 150 yuan/mt to 210 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract for the current month stood between a loss of 460 yuan/mt and a loss of 380 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, the tight supply of available spot cargoes persists. After low-priced cargoes were quickly taken up during the day, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm re-emerged, and the premium rebounded to around 300 yuan/mt, indicating strong support beneath the market. According to SMM, after the slight correction in SHFE copper prices, end-use demand emerged somewhat. Orders at some copper processing enterprises increased, with end-users mostly placing orders around 104,500 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, some LME cancelled warrants have already been shipped to China, with arrivals expected around this week, though the actual supply remains to be seen. In summary, amid low inventory, support from the backwardation structure, and buying interest from downstream at lows, Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2608 contract is expected to stay at a premium today, but the overall center may edge down slightly. Attention should be paid to the pace of import arrivals and its actual impact on spot availability.
(2) Guangdong: On July 24, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at 190 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 105,085 yuan/mt, down 1,215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 105,000 yuan/mt, down 1,210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, copper prices pulled back and, with the weekend approaching, downstream purchases increased slightly, leading to improved overall trading activity.
(3) Imported copper: On July 24, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $113/mt (price range $108-118/mt); the average B/L price was flat from the previous trading day at $108/mt (price range $105-111/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) was flat from the previous trading day at $76/mt (price range $72-80/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to late August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 24, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 104,890 yuan/mt, down 1,280 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, the average spot premium was 325 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day. Secondary copper raw material prices fell 500 yuan/mt MoM on July 24. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.6, and the procurement sentiment index dropped to 2.2. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,818 yuan/mt, down 27 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices pulled back, and many copper scrap traders who had previously taken short positions delivered them in succession. In addition, secondary copper rod enterprises expected copper prices to have further room to pull back, and with traders delivering short positions, the raw material inventory of secondary copper rod enterprises, along with materials in transit, was quite ample. As a result, intraday market transactions were relatively mediocre.
Price: On the macro front, the US and Iran briefly eased tensions, the US halted airstrikes against Iran, and Iran suspended retaliatory actions. The market continued to watch the latest developments in the US-Iran conflict, and geopolitical uncertainty caused copper prices to move sideways. Furthermore, LME inventories continued to decline, and stocks outside the US tightened, providing support to the bottom of copper prices. Fundamentals-wise, low-priced supply sources were scarce, and available spot cargoes remained tight. On the demand side, affected by the phased pullback in copper prices, end-user purchasing sentiment marginally recovered. On the whole, copper prices are expected to drift higher within a narrow range today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and do not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]