Crude Oil Posts Three Straight Weekly Gains, Metals Show Mixed Performance, LME Tin Rises Over 1%, SHFE Silver Gains Over 4% Weekly [Overnight Market]

SMM July 25 News:

Metal Markets:

Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 1.01% increase, while LME aluminum led the losses, falling 0.78%. SHFE lead dropped 0.76%, and the % changes for the remaining metals were relatively small. The main alumina contract rose 0.67%, while the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.57%.

Overnight, most ferrous metals rose. Stainless steel closed flat at 14,740 yuan/mt, while hot-rolled coil and rebar both gained around 0.4% — hot-rolled coil rose 0.46% and rebar rose 0.42%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal falling 0.35% and coke rising 0.9%.

Overnight in the precious metals market, COMEX gold rose 0.14%, achieving a weekly gain of 0.92%. COMEX silver rose 0.75%, with a weekly gain of 3.84%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.18% and SHFE silver rose 1.39%. On the weekly candlestick, SHFE gold gained 1.06% and SHFE silver gained 4.17% for the week.

As of 78:14 on July 25, the closing market conditions were as follows:

Macro Front

China:

The People's Bank of China announced it will conduct overnight reverse repo operations from July 29 to July 31 and on August 3, using a fixed interest rate and quantity-based tender. Operations will amount to 600 billion yuan daily from July 29 to July 31, and 300 billion yuan on August 3. (Jin10 Data APP)

[Foreign Ministry: Tariff Wars and Trade Wars Serve No One's Interests]Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a regular press conference. A reporter asked about the new round of US tariff measures taking effect today and if the Foreign Ministry could comment. Lin Jian stated that China's position on China-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear — China opposes all forms of unilateral tariff measures, and tariff wars and trade wars serve no one's interests. (CCTV News)

[Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson Answers Questions on Adding 14 EU Entities to the Export Control List] On July 24, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce released the export control list. What are the considerations? On the evening of July 23 Beijing time, the EU formally released its 21st package of sanctions against Russia, listing 14 companies from mainland China and Hong Kong for sanctions. To safeguard national security and interests, fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, and in response to the EU's egregious actions, China has decided, in accordance with the Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items, to add 14 EU entities, including Rafaut Group, to the export control list. This prohibits export operators from exporting dual-use items to these entities and prohibits overseas organizations and individuals from transferring or providing dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to these entities. (Jin10 Data APP)

US Dollar:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index edged up 0.01% to 101.45, posting a weekly gain of 0.68%. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of the US Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 62.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 37.9%. For September, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates is 15.1%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 56.2%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 28.7%. (Jin10 Data APP)

Morgan Stanley strategists stated in a report that recent data suggests the Fed will stay on hold at its July meeting and may keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. They wrote, "The Fed is losing patience with above-target inflation. The trajectory of inflation over the coming months is critical — we expect it to fall back as anticipated — otherwise the Fed might pivot to raising rates later this year." Money markets have currently priced in expectations for nearly two rate hikes from the Fed by year-end. However, a slowdown in inflation may prompt the Fed to keep rates unchanged this year, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. "We anticipate the disinflationary trend will keep the Fed on hold this year." (Jin10 Data APP)

Other Currencies:

According to a Nikkei report, the Bank of Japan plans to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1% at its policy meeting on July 30 and 31. Sources close to the matter say a majority of the nine-member BOJ Policy Board is expected to vote to hold rates steady. Although board members generally view current financial conditions as accommodative and see the need for further rate hikes to stabilize prices, many indicated there is no immediate urgency to act. Some members called for another rate hike in July following the June increase, as the BOJ closely watches the impact of the June hike amid heightened Middle East tensions and inflation risks from rising oil prices. At next week's meeting, the board may raise its median real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2026. The BOJ's April forecast was 0.5%, but economic conditions have since improved. The increasing availability of resources to replace Middle Eastern crude oil, and the receding concerns over corporate output declines are also noted. Many within the BOJ also believe that AI-related industries are outperforming expectations, driving Japan's economic growth. (Jin10 Data APP)

Macro Front:

Next week in China, data releases will include China's June industrial profits above designated size YoY, China's July official manufacturing PMI, and others. In the US, data releases will include the US Fed interest rate decision (ceiling) up to July 29, US June durable goods orders MoM, US July Dallas Fed business activity index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, US May FHFA house price index MoM, US May S&P/CS 20-City composite home price index NSA YoY, US July Conference Board consumer confidence index, US July Richmond Fed manufacturing index, US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, US June core PCE price index YoY, US Q2 annualized GDP QoQ preliminary, US Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ preliminary, US June core PCE price index MoM, US Q2 employment cost index QoQ, US July Chicago PMI, US July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final, US July one-year inflation expectations final, and others. In the Eurozone, data will include the Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY preliminary, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial sentiment indicator, Eurozone July economic sentiment indicator, Eurozone July CPI YoY preliminary, Eurozone July CPI MoM preliminary, and others. In Germany, releases include the German July IFO business climate index, German Q2 GDP NSA YoY preliminary, German July CPI MoM preliminary, German July seasonally adjusted unemployment change, German July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, and others. Swiss data includes the Swiss July ZEW investor sentiment index, Swiss July KOF economic barometer, Swiss June real retail sales YoY, and French July CPI MoM preliminary. UK data includes UK July CBI distributive trades realized sales, UK June mortgage approvals, and the UK bank rate decision up to July 30. Additionally, Australia's June CPI NSA YoY, France's Q2 GDP YoY preliminary, Japan's June unemployment rate, Japan's BOJ target rate up to July 31, and Canada's May GDP MoM will be released.

Furthermore, a new pricing adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. The US Fed FOMC will release its interest rate decision, and Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Bank of England will release its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and the Bank of Canada will release its monetary policy meeting minutes.

Crude Oil:

Overnight, crude oil prices on both exchanges fell together, with US crude down 1.87% and Brent crude down 1.53%. On a weekly basis, US crude surged 10.63% and Brent crude rose 5.36%, both posting their third consecutive weekly gain. During the week, renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran fueled a short-term price spike, but overnight prices on both exchanges pulled back as peace talks between the US and Iran showed potential for restart. Wall Street CN mentioned that on Friday, US Eastern Time on the 24th, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Pakistan is exploring ways to push for a restart of the stalled US-Iran negotiations.

Brent crude had previously briefly breached the $100 mark. However, prices still maintained a 10% weekly gain due to escalating disruptions to Red Sea energy transit and concerns over a further escalation of the war against Iran. "The resumption of US attacks on Iran, increased Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, and the CPC pipeline disruption have all led to a renewed squeeze in crude oil supplies, making a price rise inevitable," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah, adding that the level of disruption to the Strait of Hormuz now appears near the peak levels seen in March. (Jin10 Data APP)

Barclays: If the current situation persists for one, two, or three more months, we see risks of oil prices being $2, $7, or $10 per barrel higher, respectively, compared to our 2026 Brent crude forecast of $96 per barrel. (Jin10 Data APP)

ING analysts said: "The key question is at what price level will the Trump administration feel the pressure to return to the negotiating table." They noted that, referencing the price surge at the onset of the conflict, pressure for de-escalation would increase significantly if Brent crude approached $120 per barrel. For Iran, the more pressing issue is not the absolute price of oil but how long the country can withstand a sharp decline in oil revenues under the US blockade. (Jin10 Data APP)