This week, the rare earth oxide market was under pressure and in the doldrums overall, with the price centers of Pr-Nd, dysprosium, and terbium moving lower to varying degrees, though a notable divergence signal emerged toward the weekend. Pr-Nd oxide declined steadily from early in the week through Thursday, falling from about 763,000-766,000 yuan/mt to 752,000-755,000 yuan/mt, a cumulative drop of around 11,000 yuan/mt during the week. On Friday, boosted by higher futures prices and positive news, spot suppliers' willingness to sell at low prices decreased, and offers rebounded slightly, but actual transactions followed up limitedly, while downstream magnetic material enterprises' inquiries remained sluggish.
Dysprosium oxide showed a sustained grind lower this week. Prices held steady at the start of the week, but against a backdrop of persistently sluggish inquiries and stagnant trading, the price center gradually moved down, and as of today, dysprosium oxide pulled back to the 1.4-1.42 million yuan/mt range. Terbium oxide saw the widest fluctuations this week, falling steadily over the first four days, with offers pulling back to the 6.7-6.8 million yuan/mt range by Thursday. On Friday, as a top-tier player entered the market to purchase, low-priced cargo quickly dried up, suppliers raised offers accordingly, and prices rebounded slightly.
Overall, the main drag on the rare earth market this week was weak downstream demand. Entering the off-season in July, magnetic material enterprises saw insufficient new orders, adopted extremely cautious procurement strategies, and only maintained essential restocking, with inquiries and transactions staying sluggish. Meanwhile, the spot Pr-Nd oxide market was weighed down by heavy wait-and-see sentiment, with an intense tug-of-war between upstream and downstream. Some traders cut prices slightly to sell, but plants, supported by costs, were more willing to hold prices firm, making low-priced cargo consistently hard to find, which led to a stalemate in actual transactions. Currently, overall trading activity in the rare earth oxide market remains low, and the sustainability of Friday's price rebound is yet to be seen.
Looking ahead to the near term, with the stalemate between upstream and downstream, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to move sideways in a narrow range, with limited room for either a sharp rise or fall. Supporting factors lie on the supply side—recently, some raw ore separation enterprises have suspended operations, and scrap recycling enterprises' production has stayed persistently low, keeping overall oxide supply relatively tight and providing a bottom to prices. Conversely, drags come from the demand side: in the short term, new orders for magnetic material enterprises are unlikely to recover quickly, buyers show low acceptance of high prices, and the market lacks momentum for sustained upward movement. For heavy rare earths, dysprosium and terbium are expected to gradually stabilize after this week's correction as major players step in to purchase. In the medium term, most industry participants hold expectations of demand recovery in the traditional peak season at the end of Q3, and coupled with potentially improving new export orders, the rare earth price center still has potential to trend steadily higher after a period of consolidation. However, in the short term, close attention must be paid to downstream restocking pace and the procurement moves of top-tier players.
