Markets outside China saw sluggish trading this week, while Lynas raised its rare earth production from April to June [SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review Outside China].

Markets Outside China Updates

Prices:

Rare Earth Oxides: Cerium oxide FOB was quoted at $2,094-2,178/mt, cerium oxide CIF (Rotterdam) was quoted at $2,827-2,837/mt, lanthanum oxide FOB was quoted at $1,023-1,083/mt, praseodymium oxide FOB was quoted at $128-131/kg, neodymium oxide FOB was quoted at $163-195/kg, neodymium oxide CIF (Rotterdam) was quoted at $250-270/kg, dysprosium oxide FOB was quoted at $279-331/kg, remaining stable for now, terbium oxide FOB was quoted at $1,223-1,311/kg, remaining stable for now.

Rare Earth Metals: Praseodymium metal FOB was quoted at $164-172/kg, neodymium metal FOB was quoted at $155-175/kg, yttrium metal FOB was quoted at $33-38/kg, lanthanum metal FOB price was $3-3.1/kg, held steady overall, terbium metal FOB was quoted at $1,531-1,615/kg, remaining stable for now.

Trading: This week, prices outside China remained stable temporarily. On one hand, domestic price stability led to export price stability; on the other hand, markets outside China gradually entered the summer break period, procurement volumes shrank significantly, and combined with export approval policies, overall trading volumes were modest.
 

Geopolitical and Supply Chain Review

Malaysia’s Parliamentary Special Select Committee on International Trade and International Relations issued a statement on July 17, reviewing the impact on Malaysia’s foreign policy and strategic mineral industry of the $96 million rare earth supply agreement signed in March this year between Australia’s Lynas and the US Department of Defense. The committee held a hearing on July 16, hearing reports from government departments, NGOs, and Lynas senior management, recommending that the government formulate clearer foreign investment policies to safeguard national interests and sovereignty, and urging that an official position be issued within two weeks. Lynas has yet to respond to requests for comment. Since April this year, 57 NGOs in Malaysia jointly signed a petition opposing the agreement, concerned about directly linking local rare earth processing operations with foreign military supply chains. More than 20 NGOs also held a peaceful rally near the Parliament House on July 6, urging Prime Minister Anwar to intervene. Malaysia is the largest commercial rare earth separation producer outside China. In the global rare earth market, outside of China’s over 90% production, the rest is mainly supplied by Lynas.

Project Progress and Capital Operations

Namibia Critical Metals (NCM) announced that the joint management committee of the Lofdal heavy rare earth project has approved the next-phase definitive feasibility study, with up to C$11 million in additional funding, and awarded the first metallurgical contract to SGS Canada, marking the project’s entry into full implementation, which will verify the entire process from ore to light and heavy rare earth separation, providing data support for plant design and financing. Sinomine Resource Group announced that its controlling subsidiary and wholly-owned subsidiary plan to transfer 100% equity of Africa Lion Mining to Sino Great Chemical and natural person HUANG YAOCHI for $19.5 million, with the target company’s core asset being a mining right for both rare earth and phosphate ore in Zambia, approved in December 2024. USA Rare Earth (USAR) announced that current CEO Barbara Humpton will retire on October 1, and Thras Moraitis, current CEO of Brazilian rare earth producer Serra Verde Group, will succeed her; USAR expects to complete the $2.8 billion acquisition of Serra Verde Group by the end of August, with Moraitis serving as president during the transition.

Technology and Capacity Updates

Ucore Rare Metals announced it has produced qualified samples of 99.9% purity dysprosium oxide for potential clients in Japan, South Korea, and the US, a milestone for Western heavy rare earth separation technology, but has yet to achieve commercial breakthroughs. JS Link disclosed that its qualified magnet-grade product production yield is around 95%, and it is sending samples to clients as commercial scale expands, while publicly acknowledging that its ultra-high-coercivity grain boundary diffusion process has not yet reached target performance. It is currently advancing capacity expansion in Kuantan, Malaysia, positioning itself as a non-China rare earth magnet supply chain. Canadian rare earth recycler Cyclic Materials has partnered with US electronics recycler ERI. ERI will utilize its nationwide collection network and eight recycling centers to supply Cyclic with end-of-life products containing rare earth magnets. Cyclic’s Arizona plant can process 25,000 mt of end-of-life components annually, and the recovered high-purity rare earth oxides will be used in production of new magnets for applications such as automotive and national defense. The two parties also plan to jointly bid for government and commercial recycling projects. Cyclic previously signed a 10-year agreement with German magnet producer VAC to recycle NdFeB scrap from its South Carolina facility.

Resource Exploration and Production Data

Dateline Resources made progress in its first round of rock chip sampling at the Music Valley heavy rare earth project in California. All 33 surface samples showed anomalous rare earth grades, with one sample from the southern target area having total rare earth oxide (TREO) content of 7.13%, and two other samples 650-800 meters apart having TREO of 2.32% and 1.07%, respectively, validating the exploration model and identifying multiple target zones. Lynas reported production for April-June: rare earth oxide (TREO) total production up 8% YoY (jointly contributed by the Mt Weld mine, Kalgoorlie processing plant in Western Australia, and Kuantan refinery in Malaysia), but due to issues at the Mt Weld water recycling plant and concentrate quality, light rare earth Pr-Nd production fell 11% YoY; heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium production increased to 19 mt, marking first-time production; samarium oxide was produced in March and is undergoing qualification testing with clients, with first orders expected in July-September. Over the same period, the average selling price of rare earth oxides rose 63% YoY to A$98.2/kg, and sales revenue increased 70%, mainly due to higher Pr-Nd prices, increased sales volume of heavy rare earths, and product premiums. Lynas raised the cost expectation for its Malaysian heavy rare earth operations from A$180 million to A$294 million, mainly due to higher client purity requirements and rising procurement costs for equipment outside China, and expects to produce gadolinium in July-September 2027, yttrium in January-March 2028, and eventually lutetium.

Demand Side Observations

Sprout Asset Management research shows that artificial intelligence (AI) has become the third-largest driver of rare earth demand, after national defense and electrification. In 2025, the world’s top five hyperscale data center operators committed $400 billion in investment. The usage of rare earth permanent magnets in data center cooling systems (accounting for 20% of facility power costs), storage devices, and semiconductors continues to grow. According to IEA projections, by 2030, AI data centers will account for 3% of magnet rare earth consumption.