Demand Expands on Copper Price Pullback; SHFE Copper Premium Stabilizes at Highs [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Jul 24, 2026 14:57

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the current tight supply of available spot cargoes remains unchanged. After low-priced sources were quickly absorbed intraday, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm re-emerged, with the premium rebounding to around 300 yuan/mt, indicating strong support from below. According to SMM, after a slight correction in SHFE copper prices, end-use demand emerged, and orders for some copper processing enterprises increased, with end-users mostly placing orders around 104,500 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, some LME cancelled warrants have already been shipped to China and are expected to arrive gradually around next week; the actual supply remains to be observed. Overall, with low inventory, support from the backwardation structure, and downstream dip-buying, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to maintain a premium next week, though the overall center may edge down slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of import arrival pace on spot circulation.

SMM July 24 news:

Today, #1 copper cathode spot premiums against the front-month 2608 contract were quoted at 280–370 yuan/mt, with the average at 325 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SHFE copper 2608 contract traded sideways with fluctuations in early trading, with the overall center edging up slightly before pulling back. It opened at 104,700 yuan/mt, then fluctuated higher, hitting a high of 105,010 yuan/mt, before fluctuating lower again to close at 104,890 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts was between 150 yuan/mt and 210 yuan/mt, while the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract showed a loss of 460–380 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 3.02, down 0.02 from the previous trading day, while procurement sentiment was at 2.94, up 0.19 from the previous trading day. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers initially offered standard-quality copper at premiums of 350–360 yuan/mt. Subsequently, as more offers entered the market, suppliers slightly lowered their quotes. Standard-quality copper from brands such as Lufang and JCC was offered at premiums of 340–360 yuan/mt, while Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng, and Zhongjin were offered at 320–330 yuan/mt. High-quality copper from Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) was offered at premiums of 350–380 yuan/mt. Afterwards, some suppliers dumped cargoes, dragging the overall premium center lower. Cargoes such as Jinguan, Jinxin, and Zhongjin were transacted at premiums of 260–280 yuan/mt. In the second session, low-priced cargoes were quickly snapped up, making them hard to find, and supplier offers returned to around 300 yuan/mt premiums. Non-registered copper was transacted at premiums of 120–150 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to next week, the current tightness in available spot supply remains unchanged. After low-priced cargoes were quickly absorbed during the day, suppliers showed renewed willingness to hold prices firm, with premiums rebounding to near 300 yuan/mt, indicating strong support below. According to SMM, after a slight correction in SHFE copper prices, end-use demand emerged, with some copper processing enterprises reporting increased orders. End-users mainly placed bids around 104,500 yuan/mt. Supply side, some LME cancelled warrants have already been shipped to China, with arrivals expected around next week; the actual supply volume remains to be seen. Overall, with the combined support of low inventory, the backwardation structure, and the emergence of downstream dip-buying, spot premiums against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to hold next week, though the overall center may edge down slightly. Attention should be paid to the pace of import arrivals and their actual impact on spot availability.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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