[Platinum and Palladium Price Review and Forecast]
This week (July 17–July 23), platinum and palladium prices exhibited wild swings, initially falling before rebounding sharply, ending the week higher overall. Early in the week, during the final speaking window before the Fed’s July FOMC blackout period, several voting members, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and Dallas Fed President Logan, concentrated on hawkish remarks, stressing persistent inflation and the possibility of further rate hikes. This led to a rebound in rate hike expectations, with the US dollar index and Treasury yields rising in tandem. Concurrently, the US-Iran conflict continued to escalate, with the US military launching successive airstrikes on Iranian military targets, pressuring platinum and palladium futures. Prices hit their weekly lows on July 20, after which the market gradually digested the hawkish comments, precious metals buying stepped in, and platinum and palladium stabilized, beginning a recovery. The most-traded GFEX platinum contract hit a weekly high of 418.10 yuan/g and a low of 386.80 yuan/g, closing at 409.35 yuan/g on July 23. The most-traded palladium contract hit a weekly high of 320.85 yuan/g and a low of 291.35 yuan/g, closing at 310.80 yuan/g on July 23.
In the spot market, as futures prices rebounded during the week, mainstream spot premium quotes for platinum and palladium edged down to a slight discount to GFEX prices. Most transactions for spot and in-plant warrants settled within a discount of 1 yuan/g to parity against the most-traded contract. Some traders took delivery of warehouse warrants to capture price spread between futures contracts opportunities, with deals mainly concluded at parity or a slight premium. Downstream demand remained persistently weak, with generally sluggish consumption. Overall, spot premiums for platinum and palladium were relatively stable, edging down only slightly alongside the futures price rebound.
Looking ahead, rate hike expectation trades appear increasingly crowded, and a marginal easing of hawkish signals could open a window for a staged rebound in platinum and palladium prices. Expanding demand in platinum's emerging sectors and the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict may boost the two metals' upward price elasticity. However, excessive optimism about upside room is unwarranted. The main constraints are: first, rate hike expectations have not seen a material reversal this year and still require sustained support from macro data; second, the unresolved US-Iran situation combined with a recent uptick in Russia-Ukraine conflict risks could drive oil prices higher, thus reigniting inflationary pressures; third, if the AI and tech sector correction persists, it could trigger liquidity tightening pressures. The future price direction awaits further guidance from the late-July FOMC meeting and the evolving US-Iran situation.
[Platinum and Palladium Weekly Data Commentary]
On the imports front, platinum imports rose again YoY in June; palladium imports also rebounded slightly, with the overall trajectory significantly higher than the 2023-2025 period. China's platinum and palladium imports have grown rapidly since early 2026, leading to ample domestic supply. Additionally, with export restrictions in place, this domestic surplus cannot easily be absorbed through exports.
COMEX platinum and palladium inventories have recently shown divergent destocking trends. Platinum inventories have pulled back notably, primarily as industrial precautionary stockpiling ended following the implementation of US critical mineral tariff reviews. Palladium inventory changes were relatively small, with US warehouses still holding large buffer stocks, keeping current levels near a one-year high. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium ETF holdings have seen slight net inflows recently, providing some support to prices. Overall spot supply remains loose, with London platinum and palladium lease rates continuing to pull back.
[PGM Compounds]
This week, chloroplatinic acid prices rose initially before a slight correction. Starting at 163 yuan/g at the beginning of the week, prices surged mid-week to 169 yuan/g alongside a rebound in the precious metals sector, before pulling back slightly to 167.5 yuan/g today. This marks a weekly gain of 4.5 yuan/g, up 2.76%.
Palladium chloride prices moved in tandem with chloroplatinic acid, starting the week at 186.5 yuan/g, surging to a weekly high of 194.5 yuan/g on Wednesday before pulling back slightly to 192.5 yuan/g today. This marks a weekly gain of 6.0 yuan/g, up 3.22%.
Overall, spot trading for chloroplatinic acid and palladium chloride remained lackluster. Shipments of platinum and palladium compounds slowed down, driven mainly by just-in-time procurement. Traditionally, July to August is a phased off-season for production in China's automotive industry, with south China OEMs typically scheduling high-temperature maintenance shutdowns from late July through August, dragging on shipment pace.
![2026 H1 Platinum and Palladium Import and Export Data Review: Collective Surge in Platinum and Palladium Imports, China's Physical Supply Ushers in a Window of Looseness [SMM Analysis]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/obeMy20251217171735.jpg)
![[SMM Analysis] US-Iran Tensions Push Oil to $90, Inflation Fears and Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Precious Metals](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/QnbfL20251217171735.jpeg)
