Aluminum Alloy Futures Range-Bound Game, Bull-Bear Stalemate; Spot Cargo Cost Support Fails to Change Weak Demand [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: Today, the aluminum alloy 2609 contract opened higher and consolidated during the day session. It opened at 23,020 yuan/mt in the morning session, reached a daily high of 23,070 yuan/mt, and dipped to a low of 22,925 yuan/mt during the session. It was last priced at 23,005 yuan/mt, up 135 yuan/mt or 0.59% from the settlement price. After a brief surge at the open, it encountered resistance and pulled back, with the price continuing to consolidate below the moving average. It gradually stabilized and rebounded in the afternoon session. Trading volume was 3,768 lots, and open interest edged up by 59 lots. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts was intense, with significant resistance at the top and support at the bottom. Overall, it exhibited a V-shaped consolidation pattern, with a short-term lack of clear direction. The bulls' willingness to push upward was limited, and in the near term, it is expected to continue its range-bound movement.

Spot side: Today, ADC12 market quotes remained largely stable. Cost side, driven by a slight strengthening in primary aluminum prices, aluminum scrap prices partially followed the upward trend, with cost support for secondary aluminum alloy strengthening. However, demand-side improvement remained limited, with end-user orders persistently weak and downstream purchases mainly for essential restocking, leading to average transaction performance among enterprises. Under the dual influence of cost support and weak demand, the market's wait-and-see sentiment intensified further, as most manufacturers maintained stable prices for shipments and showed little willingness to adjust prices. ADC12 prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with future trends depending on changes in aluminum scrap costs and the recovery of end-user orders.