Upstream Raw Materials: Bauxite Imports Rise YoY, Alumina Imports Surge Sharply, Primary Aluminum Imports Weaken, Total Aluminum Scrap Imports Decline YoY
1. Bauxite (HS26060000): Dominated by Guinean Supply, H1 Imports Up 17.1% YoY, June Imports Down 11.8% MoM
From January to June, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 121.0788 million mt, up 17.1% YoY. Of this, imports from Guinea totaled 98.4089 million mt, accounting for 81.28% of total imports and serving as the most critical raw material source for domestic alumina refineries. Imports of Guinean bauxite were up 23.5% YoY in H1.
On a monthly basis, June bauxite imports were 20.321 million mt, pulling back 11.8% MoM but still up 12.2% YoY. Imports from Guinea that month stood at 15.837 million mt, down 19.2% MoM, primarily because rising overseas oil prices drove up ocean freight rates and mine costs, leading Guinean mines to control shipments. Imports from Australia in the same month totaled 3.668 million mt, up 21.2% MoM.
Overall, while bauxite imports rose YoY, they remain highly dependent on the stability of shipments from Guinea. Therefore, it is necessary to continue monitoring Guinean bauxite quota policy news and oil price trends.
2. Alumina: Imports Surge 343.47% YoY, Exports Stay High, H1 Cumulative Net Imports Total 668,000 mt
In June 2026, China imported 449,050 mt of alumina, up 2.41% MoM and surging 343.47% YoY. Cumulative imports from January to June reached 2.2773 million mt. On the export side, shipments in June were 265,170 mt, edging down 6.41% MoM and up 55.09% YoY. Cumulative exports in H1 reached 1.6093 million mt, resulting in cumulative net imports of 668,000 mt for the period.
Trade flow divergence is clear: imports are highly reliant on Australia, with Australian alumina accounting for 91.65% of June's imports. Export destinations are mainly Russia and Oman, which together accounted for 92.03% of total alumina exports in June. Due to recent tensions in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz faced temporary transit disruptions. As a result, some alumina originally scheduled for the Middle East was rerouted to Chinese ports, repackaged, and then transshipped to the Middle East. This adjustment led to a rise in both alumina imports and re-exports in the Chinese market.
3. Primary Aluminum (HS76011090, 76011010): Monthly Imports Weaken, Exports See Growth, H1 Net Imports Edge Up 0.8%
In June, China's primary aluminum imports were 167,000 mt, down 19.7% MoM and 13.1% YoY. Exports were 38,000 mt, up 73.1% MoM and surging 95.4% YoY, resulting in net imports of 129,000 mt for the month, down both MoM and YoY.
In H1, cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled 1.286 million mt, up 2.9% YoY. Cumulative exports were 114,000 mt, up 31.8% YoY, with cumulative net imports reaching 1.172 million mt, a slight increase of just 0.8% YoY.
In H1, long-term import contracts and some previously arranged import orders were executed as usual, and with the arrival of in-transit cargoes, primary aluminum imports stayed high. Affected by the overseas price spread, import losses continued to widen, causing some imported primary aluminum cargoes to be redirected or re-exported to countries and regions including Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, Europe, and the US. 4. Aluminum Scrap: H1 Imports Fall YoY, with Sources Concentrated in Europe and the U.S.
In January-June 2026, China’s cumulative aluminum scrap imports reached 982,000 mt, a notable pullback from 1.012 million mt in the same period of 2025. Tighter overseas scrap collection and export policies, combined with higher LME aluminum prices, pushed up overseas scrap prices and tightened the supply of high-quality, low-cost recycled raw materials.
By source country, Thailand, the UK, and Japan were the top three suppliers, accounting for 20.2%, 13.2%, and 10.2% of H1 imports, respectively. Monthly imports under the three trade modes—Ordinary Trade, processing trade with imported materials, and processing trade with supplied materials—fluctuated significantly. Overseas scrap export tariffs and environmental protection-related controls continued to weigh on aluminum scrap supply in China.
Mid- and Downstream Processed Products: Exports Boom Across All Categories, with Multiple Hitting Monthly Export Records
1. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy (HS76012000): June Turns to Net Exports; Exports Surge 160.6% YoY to a New Record
In June, imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 55,100 mt, down 28.9% YoY and 14.7% MoM; exports were 67,200 mt, surging 160.6% YoY and up 11.7% MoM, setting a record monthly high. The trade balance shifted from net imports to net exports that month. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 433,500 mt, down 20.0% YoY, while cumulative exports totaled 238,500 mt, surging 98.3% YoY.
In H1 2026, China’s unwrought aluminum alloy trade showed a trend of shrinking imports and expanding exports. Imports were constrained by elevated overseas raw material costs and persistently negative import margins, and with geopolitical factors pushing up overseas aluminum alloy prices, import losses were significant. The import window failed to open effectively, limiting the inflow of imported resources and keeping import volumes subdued. Exports, on the other hand, benefited from tight supply and growing demand outside China, along with a favorable price spread between Chinese and overseas markets, leading to significant export growth. Meanwhile, trade modes and market expansion continued to improve, with the share of Ordinary Trade increasing and export destinations diversifying from traditional Japan and South Korea to North America, Southeast Asia, North Africa, and other regions, further enhancing diversification.
2. Aluminum Wire (HS76141000, 76149000): June exports surged nearly fourfold YoY, setting a new all-time monthly high
In June 2026, total aluminum wire exports reached 112,400 mt, up 76.03% MoM and a staggering 379.7% YoY; cumulative exports in January–June hit 283,400 mt, jumping 109.76% YoY.By subcategory, exports of other non-insulated aluminum stranded wire amounted to 96,400 mt, accounting for 85.76% of the total, with a MoM increase of 91.9%; steel-cored aluminum stranded wire exports stood at 16,000 mt, representing 14.24%. The widening Shanghai–London price spread in H1 and surging overseas demand drove domestic aluminum stranded wire exports to consecutive monthly records; meanwhile, global power grid overhauls and the concentrated rollout of new energy transmission projects underpinned stable exports of steel-cored aluminum stranded wire, supported by overseas electricity infrastructure demand.
3. Aluminum Semis (Plate/Sheet, Strip and Foil / Extrusions / Pipe & Tube / Wire / Powder): June total exports hit 605,400 mt, a new high for the year, with multiple subcategories strengthening simultaneously
According to customs breakdown, aluminum semis encompass six major subcategories: plate/sheet and strip, aluminum foil, extrusions and bar & rod, aluminum pipe & tube, aluminum wire, and aluminum powder. In June 2026, China’s total aluminum semis exports reached 598,200 mt, up 8.8% MoM from 550,000 mt, a monthly high for the year. June export performance by subcategory:
- Plate/sheet and strip exports were 354,000 mt, the largest category, up 10.66% MoM from 319,900 mt;
- Aluminum foil exports were 131,000 mt, up 9.72% MoM from 119,400 mt;
- Extrusions and bar & rod exports were 91,900 mt, up 6.00% MoM from 86,700 mt;
- Aluminum wire exports were 7,400 mt, down 34.6% MoM from 11,300 mt;
- Aluminum pipe & tube exports were 12,900 mt, up 8.0% MoM from 11,900 mt;
- Aluminum powder exports were 1,000 mt, a slight increase from 800 mt.
Demand-side support is clear: overseas PV and energy storage installations expanded, driving a surge in PV frame extrusion exports; lightweighting of NEVs in Europe and the US boosted orders for aluminum auto body sheet and structural extrusions; ongoing infrastructure and real estate construction in Southeast Asia and the Middle East continued to absorb construction aluminum extrusions; and stable demand in packaging and electronics provided a floor for aluminum foil exports. On the import side, only limited volumes of high‑end, high‑precision aluminum plate/sheet and strip and specialty alloy extrusions were required, with imports far smaller than exports, keeping aluminum semis in a large trade surplus. Looking at H1 trends, monthly aluminum semis exports bottomed in February and have since risen MoM for four consecutive months, as the widening price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and China’s integrated processing capabilities and cost advantages continued to attract export orders.
4. Aluminum Alloy Motor Vehicle Wheels and Parts: June exports saw double growth, with North America as the core export market
In June, China’s exports of aluminum alloy motor vehicle wheels and parts totaled 104,780 mt, up 20.46% YoY and up 17.73% MoM.By country: the US was the top export market with 25,900 mt, accounting for 24.71%; Japan and Mexico ranked second and third, and the three together accounted for over 50% of total exports.By province: Hebei exported 36,700 mt, a 35.02% share, making it the core producing region for wheel exports; Zhejiang and Jiangsu followed, with the three provinces contributing over 70% of exports. The recovery in overseas automobile and NEV production and sales has steadily boosted aluminum auto part exports.
Summary of Core Logic in H1 Aluminum Industry Chain Imports and Exports
1. Upstream Raw Materials: Supply-side constraints dominated the import pace.
Bauxite import pace depended on Guinea’s ocean freight shipment schedule, leading to significant fluctuations in monthly port arrivals; alumina imports and exports surged due to the Middle East conflict; aluminum scrap imports contracted sharply, restricted by overseas environmental protection and trade policies; the price ratio between Chinese and overseas primary aluminum markets fell out of balance. Overall raw material imports showed a divergent pattern of “steady growth in bauxite, surging growth in alumina, and weakening trends in primary and secondary aluminum.”
2. Downstream Processed Products: Rising overseas manufacturing demand drove broad-based high export growth.
Exports of three core processed products—auto parts, power cables, and cast aluminum alloy—all more than doubled YoY in June. Industry sentiment in overseas NEV, power grid infrastructure, and general machinery sectors remained buoyant. Combined with the cost advantages of China’s complete aluminum industry chain, overseas local orders continued shifting to China, with monthly exports of multiple categories hitting record highs, further strengthening the external competitiveness of aluminum products.
3. Trade Structure Transformation: The net export characteristic of aluminum products continued to strengthen.
Unwrought aluminum alloy shifted from net imports to net exports in June, while aluminum wire and automotive aluminum wheels maintained substantial net export volumes over the long term. Only alumina and bauxite remained net imports. China’s aluminum industry pattern of “relying on raw material imports and processing goods for export” became further entrenched, with the trade surplus for processed products continuing to widen.
Market Outlook
Bauxite: In the short term, Guinea’s bauxite shipments are expected to recover, with bauxite port arrivals anticipated to rebound MoM, July-August.
Alumina: As the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, alumina imports are unlikely to break their trend of fluctuating at highs.
Aluminum: Affected by large prior import losses and shipping cycles, China’s primary aluminum imports are expected to hold at current levels in the near term. However, as overseas supply gradually recovers and the SHFE/LME price ratio repairs, aluminum ingot imports are expected to rebound in the longer term.
Aluminum Scrap: The decline in imports caused by the inverted price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is set to persist, and tighter controls on overseas scrap exports will continue to constrain aluminum scrap imports.
Aluminum Products: Changes in overseas trade barriers and tariff policies may disrupt aluminum processed product exports, leaving uncertainty for the industry chain’s imports and exports.
Unwrought Aluminum Alloy: After July, overseas aluminum alloy prices continued to pull back, with the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets gradually repairing. If the overseas market remains weak while China’s prices stay firm, supported by cost factors such as taxes and invoices, the import profit window is expected to open, thereby supplementing domestic supply. On the export side, recovering overseas supply and narrowing spreads will compress profit margins. In H2, while export volumes are expected to remain at high levels compared to the same period, exports are projected to fall short of H1 levels due to a high base effect and weakening price spread advantages.
Aluminum Semis: From an export profitability perspective, the SHFE/LME price ratio has repaired rapidly since late June, causing the arbitrage window that drove significant aluminum semis exports to slam shut. New orders in some sectors have already declined, and current export profit margins have narrowed to the level seen in early March before the US-Iran conflict. Amid the current backdrop of weak aluminum price consolidation, downstream client sentiment is strongly bearish, with willingness to pick up goods noticeably weakening. Stockpiling orders are largely being delayed in the production schedule, though previously accepted fixed-price model orders are still being executed as planned. As orders on hand are gradually completed, H2 aluminum semis exports may face reduction risks if subsequent export profitability cannot be repaired.
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