Divergence in Wafer Enterprise Inventories, Stalemate in Tug-of-War between Upstream and Downstream in Solar Cell Market [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM July 21:

Wafer

Prices: Market 18X wafer prices were 0.82-0.86 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 0.93-0.97 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.13-1.17 yuan/piece. The high-end of the 18X wafer price range was lowered by 0.01 yuan/piece. Currently, overall market transactions were relatively chaotic. Two top-tier players were still holding prices firm, hoping to quickly escape the vicious competition of "low quality, low price".

Production: According to SMM's latest survey, a top-tier player officially cut production in the last week of the month, reducing output by about 1GW. Overall, the July production schedule decreased about 4% MoM from June, mainly because recent wafer prices fell below cash cost. In addition, the total volume and distribution of toll processing were adjusted.

Inventory: Wafer inventory buildup showed a divergent trend. Top-tier players' inventory had exceeded a reasonable range. Margins on bonded zone inventory orders to India weakened, and multiple African countries moved to the forefront of exports.

Solar Cell

Prices: Transaction ranges for all specifications continued at last week's levels. 183 was in the 0.265-0.27 yuan/W range, 210R was in the 0.258-0.265 yuan/W range, and 210N remained in the 0.265-0.27 yuan/W range. Market wait-and-see sentiment was strong, with no active price adjustments from upstream or downstream. All orders were negotiated at current prices. The core fundamentals of high industry inventory and weak downstream procurement demand had not improved. The current stability was only a short-term stalemate caused by sluggish Monday trading, and prices still faced downward pressure in the medium and long term.

Production: Some producers had already implemented July production cuts. However, due to the offsetting effect of capacity increases from integrated enterprises, the overall expected July production schedule remained above June's level, and total supply had not contracted significantly.

Inventory: Total industry inventory pulled back slightly WoW this week. Among sizes, 183 destocking was significant, and spot inventory was largely depleted. However, overall industry inventory remained high, and destocking pressure had not materially eased.

PV Film

Prices

PV-grade EVA: The mainstream spot transaction range for domestic PV-grade EVA resin was 9,600-9,700 yuan/mt. Bullish market sentiment continued. Cost side, upstream ethylene prices continued to rise, further strengthening EVA production cost support. Supply side, although some producers switched to PV-grade EVA, output was mostly supplied directly to top-tier film producers under long-term agreements, keeping circulating spot resources relatively tight. Top-tier petrochemical plants were expected to slightly raise their weekly settlement prices this week.

PV Film: The current price for 420g transparent EVA film was 5.04-5.1 yuan/m², and the price for 380g EPE film was 5.13-5.19 yuan/m². Upstream EVA resin prices edged up, boosting production costs for film enterprises. The negotiation-based prices in the film market this week may be moderately raised in line with the resin market trends.

Production: Currently, PV-grade EVA production remains stable overall; film factories' July production schedule is up about 6%-7% MoM from June, but downstream demand has provided limited boost to the market.

Inventory: Currently, PV-grade EVA inventory is maintained at a reasonable level, with no destocking pressure; film factories are purchasing as needed, with no signal of concentrated restocking being released.