General Administration of Customs: China's Copper Ore and Concentrates Imports Up 0.03% YoY in June, A Breakdown of Import and Export Data

Sweden has rejected appeals against Boliden’s mining concession for the Laver copper project in northern Sweden, allowing the company to advance one of Europe’s potentially significant new sources of domestic copper supply toward the environmental permitting stage. The mining concession, originally granted by Sweden’s Chief Mining Inspector in September 2025, provides the right to extract copper, gold, silver and molybdenum from the Laver deposit. The Swedish government’s August 12 decision rejected two appeals against the concession, removing an important regulatory hurdle for the proposed mine. Laver contains an indicated Mineral Resource of approximately **849.5 million tonnes grading 0.24% copper**, according to Boliden’s 2025 resource statement. The company estimates that development of the project could **roughly double Sweden’s copper production** and increase Europe’s copper self-sufficiency by approximately **10%**. The project is not yet approved for construction or production. Boliden will now proceed with its application for an environmental permit, while additional technical and regulatory work will be required before an investment decision can be made. From a longer-term supply perspective, progress at Laver is significant as Europe seeks to increase domestic production of critical raw materials and reduce its reliance on imported copper. Although production remains several years away, removal of the concession appeals improves the project’s development pathway and could ultimately support a meaningful increase in European mined copper supply.

Copper is trading near record levels at around $14,500/t, while tightness in the London Metal Exchange market has intensified sharply. The August–September spread has widened to around $370/t, while the cash-to-three-month backwardation has reached approximately $434/t, highlighting increasingly strong demand for immediately available metal.​ The tightening market structure has coincided with a prolonged decline in exchange inventories. LME copper stocks have fallen for 42 consecutive days to 204,975 tonnes, with nearly half of the remaining material reportedly already earmarked for withdrawal. The combination of falling inventories and widening nearby premiums points to mounting pressure in the physical market.​ At the same time, copper flows are becoming increasingly fragmented geographically. Metal has been redirected toward the US amid expectations of possible 15–30% tariffs on refined copper, while demand for deliverable units in China has also strengthened as smelters face tighter feedstock availability following the DRC’s concentrate export restrictions.​ Supply-side constraints are adding to the pressure. Chilean copper production remains around 5.5 million tonnes per year, while Indonesia’s 342,000-tpy Gresik smelter is currently offline, reducing refined supply availability. These developments come as concentrate markets remain tight and smelter operating conditions stay under pressure.​ The increasingly pronounced backwardation suggests that the immediate issue for the copper market is not simply high prices, but access to physical metal. BMI currently expects 2026 copper prices to average around $13,500/t, while maintaining a view of strong upside risks. If LME inventories continue to decline, competition for warehouse metal could intensify further, increasing the risk of additional volatility in nearby contracts.

According to foreign media reports, Lloyds Metals & Energy has been authorized to undertake preparatory works and feasibility activities aimed at assessing the potential redevelopment of the Panguna copper-gold mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea, nearly four decades after the operation was shut down. The Autonomous Bougainville Government granted the authorization on August 7, allowing Lloyds to carry out an approved programme of preparatory and feasibility work required to assess and plan the future redevelopment of the mine. Lloyds is acting as the approved development partner of government-owned Bougainville Minerals, which holds the mining lease covering Panguna. The project represents a potentially significant source of long-term copper supply. Panguna's remaining reserves are estimated at approximately 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 19.3 million oz of gold, while Lloyds plans to revalidate the project's resource base as part of the redevelopment process. The mine has remained closed since 1989. The latest authorization follows the granting of a 25-year mining lease to Bougainville Minerals in June, providing a framework for further evaluation of the dormant asset. However, the current approval does not permit construction or copper production to begin. Any progression into those stages will require additional approvals, meaning a potential restart remains subject to further technical, regulatory and development work. The renewed progress at Panguna is notable given the scale of the historical deposit and growing efforts globally to develop additional copper supply. The immediate impact on mine supply remains limited, but successful feasibility work and resource revalidation could provide greater clarity on whether one of the world's largest dormant copper assets can eventually return to production.