Supply Tight, Cargo Hard to Find; Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Remain Strong [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

SMM, July 17:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2608 contract were quoted at a premium of 300-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract showed a pattern of falling, stabilizing, and rebounding. It opened at 103,920 yuan/mt, then continued to weaken and dipped to a session low of 103,390 yuan/mt, before steadying and rising to close at 103,710 yuan/mt. The front-month to next-month backwardation spread ranged from 120 yuan/mt to 180 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper import profit margin for the 2608 contract stood at a loss of 190-250 yuan/mt.

Intraday, Shanghai copper cathode sales sentiment was 3.09, up 0.07 from the previous day, and procurement sentiment was 3.22, up 0.52 from the previous day. Historical data can be found in the database. At the start of early trading, supplier offers were quite varied: some suppliers quoted Dajiang PC at a premium of 330 yuan/mt, while Zhongjin, Tiefeng, OLYDA, and others were offered at premiums of 360-380 yuan/mt, and JCC, Lufang, etc., at a premium of 400 yuan/mt. After cheap cargoes were quickly taken, standard-quality copper was generally offered at premiums of 350-400 yuan/mt. High-quality copper brands such as Jinchuan (plate), Jintun plate, and Guixi were offered at premiums of 400-430 yuan/mt. In the second period, available spot cargoes tightened further, and suppliers raised their offers further. Cargoes at a premium of 370 yuan/mt were hard to find, with standard-quality copper mostly offered at premiums of 380-420 yuan/mt. Non-registered copper traded at premiums of 200-250 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, available spot cargoes remain tight, hovering at low levels for the year, and the destocking trend persists. Coupled with a widening backwardation structure, suppliers have been raising quotes continuously intraday, showing a strong willingness to hold prices firm. Overall, given tight spot availability, firm supplier pricing, and downstream just-in-time procurement, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium next Monday, with the overall premium center continuing to rise.