Cost Support Coupled With Off-Season Demand, ADC12 Price Remains Moving Sideways [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures side: The aluminum alloy 2609 contract drifted higher in intraday trading today, opening at 23,040 yuan/mt in the morning session and closing the morning at 23,070 yuan/mt, edging up 5 points or 0.02% from the settlement price. After a brief early-session spike and pullback, the price dipped to 22,970 yuan/mt where support held firm, before bulls gradually pushed it higher, with the intraday price holding above the average line. The four-hour candlestick remained supported by the DKX moving average, and the KD indicator stayed in bullish territory. Intraday trading volume edged up, open interest ticked higher, and funds saw modest inflows. Resistance was evident near 23,105 yuan/mt, while support was solid at 22,970 yuan/mt. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts was mild, and the overall market moved sideways at elevated levels.

Spot side: The ADC12 market maintained a steady price trend overall today, with quotations from mainstream producers basically flat. The SMM ADC12 quotation was unchanged from the previous trading day at 24,100 yuan/mt. On the one hand, recent aluminum price fluctuations were limited, and the cost side lacked new drivers, while tight aluminum scrap supply provided some support to secondary aluminum alloy prices, leaving producers with little willingness to adjust prices. On the other hand, end-use demand remained in the off-season, downstream order releases were insufficient, and purchases were largely need-based, resulting in a muted market atmosphere; some enterprises reported that demand weakened further compared to earlier. Amid the tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, the market overall took a cautious wait-and-see stance. It is expected that short-term ADC12 prices will mainly move sideways within a narrow range with a steady bias, with focus on aluminum price fluctuations, changes in aluminum scrap supply, and improvement in downstream orders.