PV Frame Operating Rate Consolidates on a Strong Note; Aluminum Prices Expected to Mainly Consolidate and Adjust in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

SMM, July 16:

PV Aluminum Extrusion: This week, the operating rate of the surveyed industry sample of PV frame enterprises held up well. Leading extrusion manufacturers continued to run at full capacity, supported by ample long-term orders on hand, with the core driver being the advancement of centralized PV projects toward year-end. In H2, the production schedule situation for downstream leading module enterprises is expected to be better than H1, but monthly incremental growth in PV frame demand will steady MoM, limiting the extent of demand improvement. SMM also learned that PV frame processing fees remained stable recently without notable changes. On balance, the operating rate of PV frame enterprises will likely maintain a consolidating-to-firm pattern in the near term.

Raw Material Prices: During the period (July 13-July 16, 2026), the SMM A00 weekly average price was 23,155 yuan/mt, up 0.9% from the prior week. Overall, recurring Middle East tensions, lingering rate hike concerns, and continued supply recovery clashed with a destocking trend that is hard to reverse in the short term. Amid this tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate in the near term. The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract is expected to trade in a range of 22,500-23,500 yuan/mt next week, while LME aluminum is expected to trade at $3,050-$3,250/mt. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to Middle East production resumption progress and geopolitical conflict trajectory, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, and China’s downstream processing orders and aluminum semis export data.