[SMM Steel] 7.16 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

[Flat products]Today HRC and other flat-product export prices were steady day on day, with HRC transactions concentrated in the 490-493 USD/tonne range. Overall market sentiment was mediocre today, and some mills in north China concluded small-lot HRC deals. [Billet]Today billet export FOB prices were steady, with Jiangyin port offers at 455-460 USD/tonne. Feedback indicates that export offers have risen recently, but overseas buyers' price expectations sit more than 5 USD/tonne below those offers, and with some overseas exporters quoting on the low side, Chinese prices hold no clear advantage. The market has largely stayed cautiously on the sidelines and appetite to trade has been weak. [Rebar]Today rebar export offers at Tianjin port were steady, with overall transactions at 478-483 USD/tonne. Exporters report that recent typhoon disruption has prompted warnings at some ports, which may weigh on port operations and loading efficiency. On the demand side, overseas end-users remain reluctant to accept high-priced cargoes, and overall trading has been on the weak side.

HRC futures moved sideways today, with the most-traded HC2610 contract closed at 3,342 yuan/mt, down 0.24% intraday. The spot market was also under pressure, with mainstream quotations pulling back 5-10 yuan/mt. Transaction volumes weakened MoM during the day, and more traders offered discounts to sell. In terms of supply, the latest SMM survey on HRC maintenance pace shows a pattern of "shooting up this week and concentrated production resumptions next week," but overall production remains at historically low levels for the same period. On the demand side, according to the SMM survey, most clients do not hold high expectations for a market recovery from the off-season to the peak season, and downstream purchase willingness is weak. Social inventory data released intraday across multiple regions also primarily shows inventory buildup. Therefore, on balance, HRC fundamentals lack upward momentum in the short term and are likely to continue moving sideways.

[Malaysia] Malaysian flat and long steel prices moved in opposite directions this week. A major local mill’s offer for S275JR HRC stood at around MYR 2,130/tonne ($528/tonne) EXW, up MYR 20/tonne week on week. Meanwhile, market transaction prices for 16mm and 20mm B500B rebar were reported at around MYR 2,180/tonne ($540/tonne) EXW, down MYR 40/tonne week on week. Overall trading activity remained cautious, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing on an as-needed basis.