Market Sentiment Impact Continues, Iron Ore Prices Expected to Rebound [SMM Iron Ore Daily Review]

Published: Jul 16, 2026 17:40

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Today, iron ore futures moved sideways. The most-traded DCE contract I2609 closed at 759.5 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday. Qingdao port spot prices fell 2-5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders sold in line with market conditions, steel mills' purchase willingness improved, and market trading sentiment was better than yesterday. Specifically, the transaction price for PB fines at Rizhao Port was 708 yuan/mt.

According to the SMM survey, on July 16, total inventory across 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 106.27 million mt, down 1.87 million mt WoW, with destocking in coarse fines, concentrates, and pellets, while lump ore saw slight inventory buildup. This indicates that overall demand for iron ore remains resilient. Although market talks about environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan have already started, they have not affected hot metal output, and iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively stable. However, given expectations of reduced Ukrainian concentrate supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and with the July Politburo meeting approaching, market expectations for H2 policies are strong. As a result, ore prices may see a short-term rebound.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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