[Price spread between futures contracts widened after contract rollover, driving spot premiums sharply higher, but overall consumption was mediocre [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]]

Published: Jul 16, 2026 15:33

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Jul 2, 2026

Guangdong Region: Spot premiums in the region bottomed out and then rebounded this week. Premiums continued to decline ahead of delivery but surged after delivery due to a wide price spread between futures contracts. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 180 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Shanghai was 200 yuan/mt higher. The price spread was relatively small, so no interregional shipments occurred. Attention should be paid to whether the price spread will widen further next week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 22,600 mt, down 1,600 mt WoW, with total warrants at 4,700 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 14,100 mt/week, up 4,400 mt/week WoW, in line with the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. The main reason was the normalization of logistics in Guangxi. Warehouse withdrawals were 15,700 mt/week, down 1,400 mt/week WoW and slightly above the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. A processing enterprise implemented production cuts early in the week, and downstream procurement willingness declined amid the wide price spread between futures contracts during the contract rollover, which led to lower withdrawals.

Looking ahead to next week, domestic copper arrivals are expected to increase slightly, but a downstream processing enterprise will undergo maintenance. Consumption is expected to edge up, so inventory may rise slightly and premiums will consolidate lower. However, given the elevated premiums in Shanghai, the decline in Guangdong premiums is expected to be limited.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This document does not constitute a direct investment research or decision-making recommendation. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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