[Price spread between futures contracts widened after contract rollover, driving spot premiums sharply higher, but overall consumption was mediocre [SMM South China Copper Cathode Spot Weekly Review]]

Published: Jul 16, 2026 15:33

Save

Jul 2, 2026

Guangdong Region: Spot premiums in the region bottomed out and then rebounded this week. Premiums continued to decline ahead of delivery but surged after delivery due to a wide price spread between futures contracts. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 180 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt WoW; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt WoW; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong showed Shanghai was 200 yuan/mt higher. The price spread was relatively small, so no interregional shipments occurred. Attention should be paid to whether the price spread will widen further next week. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses was 22,600 mt, down 1,600 mt WoW, with total warrants at 4,700 mt, down 900 mt WoW. Specifically, warehouse arrivals this week were 14,100 mt/week, up 4,400 mt/week WoW, in line with the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. The main reason was the normalization of logistics in Guangxi. Warehouse withdrawals were 15,700 mt/week, down 1,400 mt/week WoW and slightly above the annual average of 14,200 mt/week. A processing enterprise implemented production cuts early in the week, and downstream procurement willingness declined amid the wide price spread between futures contracts during the contract rollover, which led to lower withdrawals.

Looking ahead to next week, domestic copper arrivals are expected to increase slightly, but a downstream processing enterprise will undergo maintenance. Consumption is expected to edge up, so inventory may rise slightly and premiums will consolidate lower. However, given the elevated premiums in Shanghai, the decline in Guangdong premiums is expected to be limited.

(The above information is based on market collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This document does not constitute a direct investment research or decision-making recommendation. Clients should make decisions prudently and not substitute this for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

24 mins ago

In July, cable exports pulled back MoM, and exports from various countries all declined sharply.

In July 2026, China's wire and cable exports were 277,500 mt, down 7.43% MoM and up 6.62% YoY; cumulative exports from January to July 2026 were 1.8464 million mt, up 9.26% YoY on a cumulative basis. Among them, copper wire and cable exports were 133,100 mt, down 10.67% MoM and up 8.51% YoY; cumulative exports from January to July 2026 were 915,800 mt, up 15.44% YoY on a cumulative basis.

24 mins ago

33 mins ago

Fed Rate Decision Uncertainty Rises: Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut and PCE Data in Focus

US Fed rate suspense escalates again — Warsh's Jackson Hole debut on 8/28 + PCE finale on 8/26. CME showed a 59.9% probability of maintaining rates in September and a 40.1% probability of a 25bp hike. Warsh will make his first appearance at Jackson Hole at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on 8/28 (dubbed the "Warsh debut" by the market). Since taking office, Warsh has adopted a "quieter Fed" strategy (removing forward guidance, not disclosing the dot plot, and shortening the statement), and Goldman Sachs warned that communication ambiguity would exacerbate market fluctuations. July CPI rose 3.4% YoY (cooling for two consecutive months), while core PCE remained elevated (3.7% YoY in June), with inflation having stayed above the 2% target for five years.

33 mins ago

37 mins ago

US Federal Debt Hits $40 Trillion, Treasury Yields Surge Despite Buyback Expansion

US federal debt tops $40 trillion for the first time + 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.27% + Treasury buyback expansion failsThe total US federal debt topped $40.05 trillion for the first time on August 19, and interest expenses this fiscal year are expected to be nearly $1.2 trillion (already exceeding the national defense budget). The 30-year US Treasury yield breached 5.337% intraday on August 18 (a new high since 2007), and pulled back to 5.27% on August 21; the 10-year yield was 4.73%. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced on August 20 that the single auction size of long-term Treasury buybacks would double (from $2 billion to $4 billion), but the intervention only worked for two days, and long-end yields rebounded quickly. Macquarie warned that the demand for cheaper financing may force the US Fed to be dragged into the "financial stability" mandate and even return to easing.

37 mins ago