Aluminum Alloy Futures Consolidate and Edge Up, Spot Market Weakens with Prices Temporarily Stable [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: The aluminum alloy 2609 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 22,910 yuan/mt in the morning session. It reached an intraday high of 23,055 yuan/mt and a low of 22,845 yuan/mt. As of 14:00, it closed at 23,020 yuan/mt, up 115 points, or 0.50%, from the settlement price. Prices dipped to the 22,845 yuan/mt support level early in the session, then bulls stepped in, driving the market to consolidate and rise. The intraday candlestick held above the average price throughout, with bullish sentiment dominant. The 4-hour candlestick remained above the DKX lines, while the KD indicator stayed in a neutral-to-bullish zone. Trading volume expanded notably, open interest edged up, and a small amount of capital flowed in. In the near term, 22,845 yuan/mt provides strong support, while 23,055 yuan/mt represents short-term resistance. The futures market has a bullish bias, and the overall trend is a rebound from lows.

Spot: ADC12 market quotes were generally steady today, with enterprises showing little inclination to adjust prices. On one hand, recent aluminum price fluctuations have been limited, and the cost side lacks a clear driver, keeping offers relatively stable. On the other hand, as the traditional consumption off-season deepens, downstream end-users such as automakers are gradually affected by high-temperature holidays, leading to phased pullbacks in orders. In particular, expectations of production cuts have strengthened in the second half of the month, weakening demand support. Nevertheless, under current market conditions, both sellers and buyers remain cautious, with limited willingness to compete on price. Low-price sales have a limited effect on improving trading volumes. Overall, the market is dominated by purchases on an as-needed basis and stable prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue moving sideways within a range.

Import: Overseas ADC12 offers were in the $3,050-$3,190/mt range. Affected by slightly lower overseas offers, firm domestic prices, and a stronger Chinese yuan against the US dollar, the cost pressure on imports has eased. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and the immediate import loss narrowed further to 860 yuan/mt.