Social inventory continues destocking, and after contract rollover, Shanghai spot copper maintains a high premium [SMM Shanghai spot copper]

Published: Jul 16, 2026 13:33

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the current social inventory continues to destock rapidly. SMM data shows that Shanghai's social inventory recorded 76,500 mt, down 9,100 mt MoM; Jiangsu's social inventory recorded 19,500 mt, down 6,900 mt MoM, with available spot cargoes remaining persistently tight. From the perspective of supplier behavior, after low-priced cargoes were quickly digested, the market found it difficult to locate discounted cargoes, and suppliers held firm in their intention to support prices. High-quality copper premiums were maintained at a high of 360-400 yuan/mt. After the contract rollover, the backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts narrowed but still stayed at a relatively high level. Overall, with inventory continuing to destock and limited replenishment arrivals, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE 2608 contract are expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, with the overall center possibly moving slightly higher.

SMM, July 16:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current month 2608 contract were quoted at a premium of 300-400 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 350 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2608 contract trended downward, stabilized, and then rebounded. It opened at 104,200 yuan/mt, edged down slightly after opening, touched a low of 103,980 yuan/mt, then gradually rebounded after stabilizing, hit a session high of 104,460 yuan/mt, and closed at 104,450 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from 60 to 110 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2608 contract stood at a loss of 180-240 yuan/mt.

During the day, sales sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.02, down 0.06 DoD, while purchasing sentiment was 2.70, up 0.18 DoD. Historical data can be accessed in the database. At the start of the morning session, suppliers offered JCC and Dajiang PC at premiums of 390-400 yuan/mt, and Tiefeng and Dajiang HS at 350 yuan/mt; subsequently, suppliers lowered their quotes slightly, with low-priced Jinchuan ISA offered at a premium of 270 yuan/mt and traded quickly, while Zhongjin, Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Zijin, and others were generally offered at premiums of around 300-340 yuan/mt; high-quality copper such as Jinchuan large plates and Jintun large plates were offered at premiums of 360-370 yuan/mt. In the second session, low-priced cargoes became hard to find, with Lufang, JCC, and Xiangguang trading at around premiums of 370-400 yuan/mt; non-registered copper traded at around premiums of 180-220 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the current social inventory continues to destock rapidly. SMM data shows that Shanghai's social inventory stood at 76,500 mt, down 9,100 mt WoW, while Jiangsu's social inventory recorded 19,500 mt, down 6,900 mt WoW, with available spot cargoes remaining tight. From suppliers' behavior, after the rapid digestion of low-priced cargoes, discount cargoes were hard to find in the market, and suppliers were determined to hold prices firm, with premiums for high-quality copper maintaining high levels of 360-400 yuan/mt. After the contract rollover, the backwardation spread between the front-month and next-month contracts narrowed but remained at a relatively high level. Overall, amid continued destocking and limited replenishment arrivals, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2608 contract are expected to remain at premiums tomorrow, with the overall center possibly edging slightly higher.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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