The US dollar fell for two consecutive days, most metals fell, SHFE tin dropped over 2%, LME tin, SHFE zinc, and SHFE silver fell more than 1% [Overnight market]

SMM July 16 News:

Metal Markets:

Overnight, base metals broadly declined in both overseas and Chinese markets, with only LME nickel posting a gain, up 0.48%. SHFE tin led the losses, down 2.04%, while LME tin and SHFE zinc both fell over 1%—LME tin dropped 1.33%, and SHFE zinc declined 1.03%. Other metals’ fluctuations were all within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.18%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.28%.

Overnight Ferrous Metals: Iron ore closed flat at 759.5 yuan/mt, while rebar, HRC, and stainless steel saw minor fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, coking coal fell 0.11%, while coke rose 0.63%.

Overnight Precious Metals: COMEX gold fell 0.07%, and COMEX silver dropped 1.7%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.03%, and SHFE silver fell 1.43%.

Overnight Closing Prices as of 6:49 AM, July 16:

Macro Front

China:

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP up 4.7% YoY; Economy Operating Within a Reasonable Range; New Momentum Accelerating Growth] According to preliminary estimates released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY based on constant prices. By industry, the primary sector added 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; the secondary sector added 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; and the tertiary sector added 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. Quarterly, Q1 GDP grew 5.0% YoY, and Q2 grew 4.3% YoY. Q2 GDP was up 0.9% QoQ. Overall, the economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces being cultivated and strengthened, and high-quality development progressing favorably. However, external uncertainties and instability persist, while domestic supply-demand imbalances remain pronounced, indicating that the foundation for economic recovery still needs consolidation. Going forward, efforts will focus on pursuing progress while ensuring stability, enhancing quality and efficiency, strengthening counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, boosting growth, revitalizing existing resources, building a strong domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new momentum, and reinforcing efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby driving effective improvements in quality and reasonable growth in quantity.

US Dollar:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 100.51, posting a two-day losing streak. Warren Buffett stated that the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is the “right person” for the position. I think he will do everything he can to fulfil the task he's been given, which is to achieve 2% inflation and maintain full employment." "He cannot be perfect, just as I know I cannot be perfect in managing other people's money and generating excess returns." "He has the country's interest at heart, and I think many Fed officials do too. That doesn't mean their decisions are always perfect, but sometimes those decisions are incredibly difficult." (CNBC)

US President Trump stated that pausing interest rate actions is better than raising rates. He reiterated his desire for lower (policy) rates, saying, "We should have the lowest interest rates in the world." "I respect Fed Chairman Warsh." (Wall Street See)

Fed Governor Cook Lisa said that as the AI buildout continues and recent supply shocks push up prices, the risk of persistent high inflation outweighs the risk of a weakening labour market. "If we do not see signs that inflation is continuing to pull back soon, I am prepared to act. I am firmly committed to achieving the inflation target, and that commitment will not waver," Cook said in prepared remarks for an event in Washington on Wednesday. (From the Wall Street See APP)

According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 51.2%, a cumulative 25bp hike at 44%, and a cumulative 50bp hike at 4.7%. (Jin10 Data APP)

On the macro front:

Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 11, US retail sales m/m for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories m/m for May, and US pending home sales m/m for June, as well as UK GDP 3m/3m for May, manufacturing production m/m for May, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and industrial production m/m for May, among others.

Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce holds its second regular press briefing of July, Fed Governor Cook Lisa speaks on the economic outlook, US Vice President Vance JD delivers a speech, the Fed releases the Beige Book on economic conditions, US President Trump delivers a speech, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks, and TSMC holds its Q2 2026 earnings call.

Crude oil:

As of the overnight close, both oil benchmarks rose together—WTI gained 1.13% and Brent added 0.39%—both notching a three-day winning streak, as the market continued to monitor developments in the US-Iran situation. Goldman Sachs: If the recovery in Gulf exports remains stalled and delays a production rebound, Brent crude oil prices could surpass $110 per barrel in Q4 2026. (Jin10 Data)

US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels last week, versus expectations for a 2 million-barrel decline (Bloomberg users) and a 1.962 million-barrel decline (analysts), after a 2.998 million-barrel increase the prior week. US Gulf Coast gasoline inventories dropped to their lowest since September 2017. Distillate inventories fell to their lowest since May 2025. (from Wallstreetcn APP)