The US dollar fell for two consecutive days, most metals fell, SHFE tin dropped over 2%, LME tin, SHFE zinc, and SHFE silver fell more than 1% [Overnight market]

SMM July 16 news:

Metal market:

Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell. Only LME nickel rose, up 0.48%. SHFE tin led the decline with a 2.04% drop. LME tin and SHFE zinc both fell over 1%, with LME tin down 1.33% and SHFE zinc down 1.03%. Gains in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.18%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.28%.

Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, iron ore closed flat at 759.5 yuan/mt. Rebar, HRC, and stainless steel all saw slight fluctuations in gains. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.11%, while coke rose 0.63%.

Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.07%, while COMEX silver fell 1.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.03%, while SHFE silver fell 1.43%.

As of 6:49 a.m. on July 16, overnight closing prices:

Macro Front

Domestic side:

[National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP Up 4.7% YoY, National Economy Operating Within a Reasonable Range, New Momentum Growing Rapidly] NBS data showed that preliminary estimates indicate H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY based on constant prices. By industry, primary industry added value was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; secondary industry added value was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; and tertiary industry added value was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of quarters, Q1 GDP rose 5.0% YoY, while Q2 grew 4.3% YoY. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP increased 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces being cultivated and strengthened, and high-quality development progressing with new improvements. However, we must also note that external uncertainties and destabilizing factors remain abundant, and the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is still pronounced; the foundation for economic improvement needs to be further consolidated. In the next stage, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensifying counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, enhancing growth drivers while revitalizing existing resources, focusing on building a strong domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new growth momentum, and intensifying efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, so as to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy.

[PBoC: H1 Aggregate Social Financing Increased by 20.84 Trillion, New Loans 10.72 Trillion, June M2 Up 8% YoY] Preliminary PBoC statistics show that the outstanding stock of aggregate social financing at end-June 2026 was 462.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in H1 was 20.84 trillion yuan, up 7.4% YoY. In H1, RMB loans increased by 10.72 trillion yuan. At end-June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 356.71 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY. That of narrow money (M1) was 118.48 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.74 trillion yuan, up 11.8% YoY. In H1, net cash injection was 641.7 billion yuan.

On the dollar front:

As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 100.51, recording a two-session losing streak. The US Fed's latest Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity improved mildly, with 11 of the 12 Fed districts achieving growth. Inflation was mild overall, but forecasts for the inflation outlook varied across districts, and uncertainty over energy prices was the biggest variable affecting the outlook. The labour market was solid, with employment expanding slightly, but a shortage of skilled workers pushed up wages. (Wall Street Insights)

Buffett Warren said that the new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin is the "right person" for the position. "I think he will do his best to fulfil the task entrusted to him, which is to achieve 2% inflation and maintain full employment." "He cannot be perfect, just as I know I cannot be perfect in managing other people's money and earning excess returns." "He has the country's interests at heart, and I believe many Fed officials do as well. That does not mean their decisions are always perfect, but sometimes those decisions are indeed extremely difficult." (CNBC)

President Trump Donald stated that pausing rate action would be better than raising rates for the Fed. He reiterated his desire for (policy) rates to fall, saying, "we should have the lowest interest rates in the world." "I respect Fed Chairman Warsh." Fed Governor Cook Lisa stated that as artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts continue and recent supply shocks push up prices, the risk of persistently high inflation outweighs the risk of a weakening labour market. In a speech prepared for an event in Washington on Wednesday, Cook Lisa said, "If we do not soon see signs that inflation continues to pull back, I am prepared to act. I am firmly committed to achieving the inflation target, and this commitment will not waver." (from the Wall Street Insights APP)

According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 88.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike was 11.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September was 51.2%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike was 44%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike was 4.7%. (Jin10 Data APP)

On the macro front:

Today, data to be released include the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US June retail sales MoM, US July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July NAHB housing market index, US May business inventories MoM, US June pending home sales index MoM, as well as UK May three-month GDP MoM, UK May manufacturing output MoM, UK May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK May industrial production MoM, etc.

Furthermore, the Ministry of Commerce held its second regular press conference of July, US Fed Governor Lisa Cook spoke on the economic outlook, US Vice President Vance delivered remarks, the US Fed released its Beige Book on economic conditions, US President Trump delivered a speech, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem gave a speech, and TSMC held its Q2 2026 earnings call.

Crude oil:

As of the overnight close, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose, with WTI up 1.13% and Brent up 0.39%, both recording a third consecutive session of gains as the market continued to monitor US-Iran developments. Goldman Sachs: If the prolonged disruption to Gulf exports persists and delays the production rebound, Brent crude prices could break above $110 per barrel in Q4 2026. (Jin10 Data)

US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels last week. Bloomberg users had expected a draw of 2 million barrels, analysts had forecast a decline of 1.962 million barrels, following an increase of 2.998 million barrels the prior week. Gasoline inventories on the US Gulf Coast hit their lowest level since September 2017. Fuel stockpile supply fell to its lowest since May 2025. (From Wall Street CN App)